| There will be delisting risk because of the financial crisis caused by poor management of listed companies. As NPC Standing Committee has passed the decision of stock issuance registration system authorized reform whose implementation period is 2 years. The decision has implemented Since March 1th, 2016, which means stock issuing system of registration has legal basis. As the State Council authorized Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange the implementation of stock issuance registration system reform, times when listed companies seldom withdraw from the market will be gone. This causes a new situation that the risks of the financial crisis of listed companies has increased. It’s important to know the financial crisis of listed co mpanies in advance. There are few papers about the analysis of different financial forecasting models, as while as most are about the analysis of one aspect of financial forecasting models. So it’s important to study the practical way of different financia l forecasting models.In this paper, there will be comparative analysis of main financial forecasting models. In this way, I want to show some reference to users. I chose A-share listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange as objects of my study. I chose 61 listed companies which faced abnormal financial crisis for the first time from 2013 to 2015, compared with 61 normal companies, for the research. The data was from Chinese listed companies’ financial indicators in GTA database. I used fisher discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis and factor analysis to analyze the problem. The results showed that: three methods to predict the effect of the financial crisis are very good, prediction accuracy reduced when time passed by. But in general discriminant analysis model to predict the effect is the best. Since each model has a different application conditions, so as to improve the prediction of the effect, we can choose the appropriate model for different data. |
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