| The realization of the safe, green and high-efficient development technology in mining through effective innovation is the only way for the healthy and sustainable development of coal enterprises in China. However, due to the uncertainties and management flexibility of the related technologies in the applications and development, the traditional investment decision methods can not evaluate its investment value effectively. Thus, then paper makes comprehensive use of resources economics, statistics, technical economics theory and method based on the Real Option Theory to study on the investment decision methods of the safe and efficient development of green technology. The main results of the research are as follows.(1)On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign related research, the paper further studies the theory about real options, and takes coal safe green efficient development and technology theory as a guide, the paper put forward the theoretical framework that real option method is applied to the coal safety green efficient technology investment;(2)Combing the major technologies of coal development, and using literature statistics recognize the maturity of the major technology based on certain criteria. Eventually, the paper were selected filling mining technology and CCS technology in the safe green and high-efficient of coal development front-end exploitation and back-end transformation as the main study object;(3)Analyzes the investment characteristics, uncertainty factors and option value of the coal safe, green and high-efficient development technology. Proposed it can effectively simulate and measure the impact of changes in the factors of uncertainty on investment value by join technological learning rate, policy of subsidies, the price of coal(or carbon price) and other factors in the model. Then NPV model which under the traditional decision-making methods and binomial model under real options method were constructed on the basis of reveal the value of the options formation mechanism;(4)For filling mining technology and CCS technology, the paper calculated their net present value and options value through simulation analysis. At the same time, under such conditions that the models existence different coefficients the paper calculated the amount of each factor affect to the investment value and the decision-making critical condition. Then it to be obtained the relevance and the amount of impact between each parameter and option value by sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the binomial model.The above results will provide theoretical guidance for the coal safe, green and high-efficient development technology investment evaluation, and help investor make a scientific and rational decision. |
