The Analysis Of The Driving Factors On The Runoff Change Of The Kuye River Basin

In this thesis, the tributary of the Kuye River in the middle reaches of the Yellow River has been selected as the research basin. Based on the summary of recent research results both inland and abroad China, this article analyzed the changing trend and influencing factors of the Kuye River runoff in recent years. Using the data of rainfall, runoff, water conservation measures, and land use patterns, the study constructed a SWAT model. By using the SWAT model, this study simulated the runoff performance of the Kuye River. The study made a quantitative analysis of the factors impacting the runoff of the Kuye River, such as climate change, soil and water conservation measures, coal mining, and artificial collateral circulation of water resources development and utilization etc. The study further constructed a PSR Model to simulate the Kuye River runoff performance under different rainfall patterns, land surface conditions, soil and water conservation measures and human activities. This study made quantitative analysis of the impact degrees of human activities, climate changes and land use patterns. Based on the above research, the study identified the main driving factors contributing to the Kuye River runoff change, such as vegetation change, coal mining and climate change. The main results include:(1) The runoff in the Kuye River showed a steady decreasing trend, and the trend was significant. The precipitation in this watershed showed an overall decreasing trend, but the trend was not significant. The temperature in this watershed showed an overall upward trend, and the trend was relatively significant.(2) Using the model of SWAT, this study analyzed the causes of the decreasing trend of the Kuye River runoff in recent decade, the results showed that the impact of climate change accounted for 28.23 percent, the impact of various human activities accounted for 71.77%. While within the factors of human activities impacting the river runoff, the factor of vegetation change accounted for 49.41%, the factor of mining accounted for 44.78%, while the factor of building silt dam accounted for 5.81%.(3) By building Pressure-State-Response model, a quantitative calculation was made on the overall runoff influencing factors. The result turned out that vegetation change、coal mining and climate change were the main influencing factors. The runoff decrease caused by vegetation change is about 129 million cubic meters annually, by coal mining is about 102 million cubic meters annually, by climate change is about 96 million cubic meters annually.