| Domestic and international climate change research institutions and scholars believed that:climate change will inevitably lead to changes in rainfall,runoff and evaporation of water.It will also lead to changes in the quantity of water resources and water resources.Over time and space,it will have a big impact on natural environment,social economic,agriculture and forestry,global environmental issues is one of the most important.Fenghuang is located in the core area of Wuling Mountains.Our state has made any efforts to support the development of the region.But the problem of much water(floods),less water(water shortage),dirty water(environmental degradation)has seriously affected the development of social and economic in the area.For improving the water disaster prevention ability in Fenghuang,promoting urban water system in Fenghuang effectively.This article select annual precipitation,temperature,runoff of Tuo River in Fenghuang for the study by the method of moving average,Mann-Kendall method and morlet wavelet analysis method.Combined with SWAT,to analysis the climate change and human activities effect of human and climate,which for solving problems relating to the field of urban,agriculture,industrial development,environmental and ecological protection of water resources,development and utilization,planning and management issues of importance to provide a scientific basis for future integrated water resources management,climate change adaptation,to provide technical support for the sustainable socio-economic development in Fenghuang.The main results are as follows:(1)From 1962 to 2014,the average rainfall is 1308.1mm in Tuojiang River Basin,the increase is 26.95mm/10a in overall every year.There is a significant increasing trend in 1995.It have shown a significant period of 20 years and 8 years primary cycle,distribution of rainfall is not evenly extremely during the year.(2)For many years,the average temperature in Tuojiang River Basin is 16.42?,the overall increasing is at a rate of 0.2 ?/10a.There is a significant increasing trend in 1993,it have shown a significant period of 22 years and 7 years primary cycle.(3)In the past 53 years,the annual runoff is 372.6 million m3 in Tuojiang River Basin,increasing at a rate of 3.726 m3/10a every year overall.By M-K test,we found that:since 1995,the average annual runoff showed an increasing trend,but the increase was not significant trend.By morlet wavelet analysis method to analyze the annual runoff that runoff in Tuo River wavelet variance Extreme performance under 8 years of the most significant scale,the main cycle;secondly the presence of periodic 20 years or so.(4)In the period of human activity,changes in runoff mainly to the impact of human activity-based,climate change and the impact of human activities on runoff billion m3 respectively-0.21 and-0.753 billion m3,both contribution rates were 24.3%and 75.79%.In the period of human activity,changes in the amplitude of each year the amount of the impact of climate change and human activities affect the amount is not large,its impact ratio between 74.2%-78.1%,while the impact of climate change in the proportion of 21.9%-25.8%,affecting each year the main factor for the runoff change impact of human activities,in line with the general trend.In addition,changes in rainfall Fengku greater impact on runoff change should be considered. |
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