Study On Online Health Assessment And Prediction Of Switch Cabinet Based On Fuzzy Theory And Time Series Analysis

As one of the most critical and complex equipments,the switch cabinet plays an important role in ensuring the safety and reliability of the power system.A series of abnormal conditions,such as the gel,partial discharge,insulation aging,electrical arc,contact heating,may severely affect the equipment life cycle,even causing serious accident,including the loss of life and property.However,from the actual situation of the switchgear's operation and maintenance,a lot of hidden dangers cannot be detected in time.And after the accident,the process cannot be forensics and rededuced.In addition,in daily operation,it cannot be assessed and forcasted scientifically about the health status of the switch cabinet.To solve these problems and meet these needs,the thesis studies and designs a online health assessment and prediction auxiliary system of switch cabinet based on fuzzy theory and time series analysis,which can monitor a series of important operating parameters to assess of the health status of switch cabinet and make state trend prediction.The system helps the inspectors to understand the real-time health status and trend of the switch cabinet,and then provides important reference information.Firstly,the thesis establishes switchgear comprehensive health assessment model based on dynamic warning revised weights and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The experimental results show that the evaluation model conforms to the actual standard and demand of the electric power industry.Secondly,the thesis establishes the dynamic adaptive exponential smoothing model based on the particle swarm optimization,which is used to predict the state change of the switch cabinet with the historical monitoring data.The simulation results show that the model can grasp the changing trend of the switch cabinet,and it is helpful for the inspection of the equipment.Finally,according to the demand of the real-time operation state of the switch cabinet,the thesis designs a on-line health assessment and prediction auxiliary system of switch cabinet based on fuzzy theory and time series analysis.The system realizes the integration of data acquisition,storage,management,evaluation and prediction,which plays an assistant role in the safe and reliable operation of power network.