The Research On The Landslide Of SVM Prediction And Fuzzy-PID Control Based On Time Series

With the rapid development of the economy, the increasingly construction scale of various water conservancy project, leads to the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, brings about great losses to people's production and life. As one of the major natural disasters, the problem of landslide has attracted great attention due to the growing serious threat of people's life and property safety. Therefore, it is of great realistic significance to strengthen the landslide study, which prevents and reduces landslide disasters.It is hard to establish an accurate mathematical model based on the formation mechanism, because of the landslide's complex formation mechanism, influence factors mutual coupling and complicated evolution mechanism. This thesis introduces the algorithm of the Support Vector Machine(SVM) and Fuzzy-PID control to the landslide forecast and control, which has definite adaptability for the question that is difficult to be described by mathematical model. Firstly, the thesis introduces the home and abroad research on landslide prediction, landslide control and 3D visualization of landslide. Afterwards, taking Baishuihe Landslide for the study object, the thesis proceeds to the algorithm research and verification of simulation of the displacement prediction, Fuzzy- PID control and 3D visualization, basing on the monitoring data of Baishuihe Landslide. The main tasks are stated as followed:(1)The algorithm of SVM is applied to predict the displacement of landslide, which uses a small sample data to gain a SVM model by training and study, to realize a relatively accurate prediction of the displacement of landslide.(2)Basing on the previous research achievements of landslide prediction, the ideas of fuzzy control and PID control have been combined by landslide fuzzy PID control, to accomplish the system design and simulation of fuzzy PID control, of which considering reservoir water level as controlled quantity and taking landslide displacement regard as controlled object.(3)According to the monitoring displacement data of the Baishuihe landslide area and contour map, the whole process of the landslide evolution has been intuitive presented by the combination of modeling software Creator and simulation software Vega Prime.