Research On Flood Prewarning-forecasting And Regulation Of Lijiang River Upstream With QPF

Now flood prewarning and forecasting is one of the key problems of hydroscience.,In recent years,the flood forecast model has been developed from the traditional forecast model to forecast after the first waming.The Lijiang River upstream is located in the center of rainstorm in Guangxi.The flood disaster loss is serious because of frequent storm flood.The Joint scheduling with Qingshitan,Chuanjiang,Xiaorongjiang,Fuzikou reservoir in lijiang river upstream would be effective on downstream the peak peak clipping,ensure the safety of guilin city.And how to get the quantitative precipitation forecast combined with early warning forecast and regulation to improve the accuracy of early warning forecast and prediction period,set river reservoir regulation scheme as soon as possible has crucial significance.In this paper,on the one hand,collect the lijiang river in guilin hydrological stations the use of existing mature forecast,forecast scheme,and on the basis of NFFS established in accordance with the "norm of hydrology information forecast" can be used in the scheme of flood forecast.On the other hand calculation the rainfall capacity of 4 reservoirs in lijiang river upstream,using the SMS₃,LAG₃ to build 4 reservoirs’s forecast scheme of in the storage process.And on this basis is mainly studied how to realize to assure the safety of the reservoir and reduce the premise of analyzing the downstream river channel,By obtaining quantitative precipitation forecast,the lijiang river upstream warning forecast and regulation,so as to achieve the goal of flood control and irrigation.The first step,simulation a once-in-a-century flood process using the rain flood distribution typical year when the lijiang river in simulated natural 100 a cut to 20 years in a flood.Then after the rain capacity analysis for flood regulating calculation of reservoir（phase beforehand drainage,detain the phase,water phase）.Guilin hydrological station of the maximum flow of 7500 m3/s（once-in-a-century）to 4940 m3/s（once every 20 years）after reservoirs regulation.Finally combined the discharge from reservoirs after flood regulating calculation and the interval to forecast the flood Guiling hydrological station,issue forecasting and warning in time.This example show research on flood prewarning-frecasting and regulation with QPF is feasible in practical application,which has the vital significance to make the scheduling plan in advance and flood warning forecast.