Research On Real Estate Market Risk Early Warning System Based On System Dynamics

Since the abolition of the welfare housing distribution system in 1998,the house has begun to move towards the market as a commodity,and the commercialization of housing has attracted much attention.Especially in recent years,with the sustained and rapid development of China’s real estate market,the government and other relevant departments to deal with the real estate market volume and price situation,issued a series to control housing prices,inhibit overheating investment of the real estate market macro-control measures.But the market has deviated from the expected target of the government,the rising real estate market caused by the relevant government departments on the real estate market rapid development will endanger the smooth operation and social harmony and stability of the national economy and concerns about the alert.Therefore,according to the real estate market internal operation mechanism and the law of development,formulate scientific and reasonable feasible macro-control policies,the real estate market to guide rational,meet the basic housing needs of ordinary consumers have become the hot issues of concern.In this paper,the system dynamics analysis method is applied to the real estate market risk early warning system.First of all,starting from the internal and external factors of the real estate market,the real estate market and the development of the internal operation mechanism is analyzed in detail,and discusses the factors affecting the real estate prices and its formation mechanism.Then,the system simulation model of the real estate market based on system dynamics is constructed,and the simulation of Ji’nan is taken as an example.Then according to the collected data and the prediction of dynamic system model simulation results,select the risk early-warning index to construct the index system of the real estate market risk warning,and the signal analysis method to build a comprehensive index of the real estate market risk,put forward the measure of the critical value of risk and different levels of alarm measures.Finally,combined with the actual condition of model sensitivity test results and the real estate market in Ji’nan City,the selection of variables,a comprehensive policy of single policy test of single variable and multi variable simulation experiments,through comparative analysis of different policy results,and put forward the concrete measures of Ji’nan City real estate market regulation policy proposal.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:1.The definition of the real estate market system boundary,define the main elements involved system,puts forward the basic structure of the real estate market system composed of supply and demand,cost,regulation and social four subsystems,build a real estate system simulation model based on system dynamics and simulation,provides strong support the theoretical system of the real estate market.2.Build a real estate market risk warning index system and the real estate market risk index,countermeasures are put forward to measure the critical value of risk levels and different levels of police intelligence,provides a scientific and standard reference for monitoring and controlling the risk of the real estate market.3.Points out the real estate system has great influence and suitable for use as a key variable of national policy control object,the single variable and multi variable single policy test policy test,put forward the policy measures of the real estate market,the real estate market regulation to provide feasible suggestions.