Research Of The Flood Forecasting And Application System Development Of Chaihe Reservoir

Under the impact of the East Asian monsoon,uneven temporal and spatial distribution of the rainfall has been the main characteristic in China.Particularly in recent years,with the rapid change of the climate and the increase of human beings' activities,the conflict between floods and the shortage of water has gradually become prominent.With the development of the economic scale of China,the issue of the optimizes configuration of the water resources has been one of the focuses in the whole society.For the research workers,the focus of their present research is how to explore and use the water resources reasonably.The development of the technics for flood forecasting is the key driving force to improving using efficiency of the flood.This paper,taking Chaihe Basin as the research area,through the analysis of Basin's basic situation,has found that the original flood forecast plan was in short forecast period with insufficient forecast accuracy,which can no longer satisfy the need of forecasting floods.Therefore,this paper put forward with a method of combing the coupling and ensemble rainfall forecast to extend the forecast period of floods.Meanwhile,this paper,according to the natures of the basin,based on the curve of dynamic water storage capacity,improves the forecast model,and adopts a method of classification forecast,which obviously improve the forecast consequence of the flood forecast.It is of great significance for the controlling of the Chaihe Basin.Firstly,taking Chaihe Basin's current forecast information,the reason of flood,and the influencing factors against flood forecast into consideration,the paper points out that when proposing the plan for flood forecast,the workers should consider the influence on the runoff yield and runoff concentration caused by the human beings' activities.Secondly,workers should choose the ECMWF,NCEP and UKMO three sets of ensemble forecast rainfall forecast data,comparative analysis by adopting the method of TS score,Brier score,Talagrand distribution and all the model prediction techniques,on the basis of the statistical analysis of all pattern grading precipitation forecast of the forecast results.Through the further analysis of the three rates,they would choose a better method to determine the feasibility of the forecast data applied in the flood forecast.Thirdly,based on the Xaj Model and TOPMODEL,the paper conducts research on the forecast method of the Chaihe Basin,and discusses the impact exerted on the river's runoff yield and runoff concentration by human beings' activities.Then,for one thing,on the basis,combining the upper-side Hydraulic Engineering project and the distribution of paddy field area infers the utmost influence on the floods by human beings and modifies the models according to the theory of dynamic storage capacity.For another thing,the model of the runoff concentration lacks some thoughts about the impact by human beings' activities,resulting in the inaccurate forecast of the runoff concentration.Thus,this paper,based on the index assortment like the initial soil moisture and the rainfall center,respectively tries out the tests of the runoff concentration,which achieves good effect,sets a solid basis for the following coupling and ensemble rainfall forecast system.In order to increase the efficiency of the flood forecast and simplify the steps for setting up the model,this paper,on the basis of the modified Xaj Model,adopts the C/S st.