The Expansion Research Of Programme Substitution Principle Of Lakatos

The methodology of scientific research program is important in the philosophy of science.In this paper,the main research object is the principle of substitution program.It will analyze the origin and basic contents of Programme substitution principle of the history of Science,and try to use the Bayesian method and structural realism to overcome its difficulties,besides,it will illustrate the intrinsic link between them.The specific content of this paper includes the following three parts.In the first part,this paper discusses the main content of the substitution principle,and this includes four aspects :the theory series principle,heuristic principle,theoretical progress principle and experience progress principle.And then this paper analyzes the relationship about the four principles,falsificationism and paradigm theory.Besides,it also uses science history to analyze them.Including Copernicus programme,Ptolemy programme,Einstein programme and Lorenz programme.Through the analysis,the principle that Platon inspired method and two progress principle have been fully embodied in Copernicus and Ptolemy's program,and in Einstein and Lorenz's program,heuristic principle,two progress principle and theory series principle also have been reflected.In the second part,this paper mainly discusses the explanation of Bayesian analysis method to the principle of substitution.The specific contents include issues related to the substitution principle,namely the influence of Duhem problem and old evidence program.This paper carried out a detailed discussion on the solution of the former,and holds that Bayesian method can give a reasonable explanation to the substitution principle,namely Bayesian methods can explain people's confidence level by calculating,and explain the reason about that the hard core of a research program can not be refuted when the competing programs appears.In the last part,this paper explains the internal connection between the structural realism and the continuity problem,and mainly discusses the relationship between both of them and the process of substitution.Through the analysis,this paper holds that the continuous view of structural realism has important theoretical significance to the substitution principle.Becausein the the same study programme,continuity exists,and between two study program,it can use the idea of continuity to explain the process.Therefore,the continuity of common physical world.structure of structure realism,which is important to substitution principle.