Study Of Correction On Precision Forecasting Of Temperature And Marine Strong Wind In Yingkou

Temperature and wind forecast is an important part of the weather forecast.We used the NCEP/NCAR numerical product and the highest and lowest temperature observation data at Yingkou during 2002 and 2011,establish the highest and lowest temperature forecasting regression equation in seasons.According to the relationship between humidity,wind,low cloudiness and precipitation,and the highest(lowest)temperature,establish the corresponding revised relationship respectively,and revise the forecast regression equation.In addition,we have conducted a c lassification study of offshore winds in Yingkou area,and proposed a method for predicting the threshold value of strong winds.The study found that:(1)There was a certain correlation between the 850 hPa temperature numerical products and the highest and lowest temperature of the three stations.The different factors' effect on the temperature of different stations in different months is different: humidity on the Xipaotai station temperature is small,a greater impact on the Dashiqiao;cloudy weather has a certain impact on the temperature of the three stations;when precipitation occurs,the temperature of all stations need to be revised;when the wind speed is too large,the temperature will be lower,as the wind speed is smaller,the temperature will be higher.The revised indicators of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts for each of the three representative stations are obtained in order to improve the forecast results;(2)In addition,by analyzing a few examples of past temperature forecast errors,it is found that the topography and other factors have a certain degree of impact on the temperature.The statistical test of the correction effect found that the accuracy of the temperature forecast of the selected station can be improved by about 3% ~5%;(3)This study has also carried on the classification resear ch to the offshore gale that Yingkou area appears,according to the weather model,divides the gale of the sea into four kinds: C yclone(low pressure)type,High pressure rear type,Cold front rear type,Typhoon type.Among them,the cyclone(low pressure)type in Yingkou area is the most common.By analyzing the historical process of all kinds of winds at sea,this paper summarizes the objective quantitative forecast method of wind gusts at sea,which can be divided into: whether there are forecasting,forecasting intensity,forecasting area and forecast.A method for predicting the threshold value of strong winds is available.This method can reduce the occurrence of missing reports compared with the original forecasting methods..