Research On Air Quality Prediction Model Based On Numerical Forecast

In recent years,the accelerating process of human industrialization has aggravated the deterioration of the environment.with the constant emergence of regional heavy pollution weather especially heavy haze weather,air quality issues have become one of the hot topics of society.The air pollution in our country has been changed from a single type of pollution in the past into compound air pollution that has many kinds of pollutants and multiple mechanisms exist simultaneously,and they are mutually affected.The complex air pollution problem increases the difficulty of air quality prediction,and the traditional single prediction method can not predict the air quality status accurately.The study is about the research of the regional air quality forecast based on the air quality numerical simulation forecasting technology.An air quality prediction model named Multi-mode Integration and Correction predicition Model is proposed and designed.The model adopts highly modular design concept: the functin of meteorological data module is to set the specific parameter scheme of the meteorological software MM5 and WRF based on the regional meteorological characteristics of Zhejiang Province;the founction of Pollution source localization module customized pollution source list data in Zhejiang,the pollution source list is processed by the SMOKE,and the output of SMOKE is as the pollution source list input of the air quality numerical model.Air quality multi-mode operation module implement the parallel operation of WRF-CHEM?WRF-CMAQ?MM5-CMAQ and MM5-CAMx.Integrated modification module implement the integration and correction of the results of multi-mode operation.The module includes multi dimensional dynamic weight updating model and error correction model.Multi dimensional dynamic weight update model dynamically adjusts the weighting factors of all kinds of pollutants in integrated predicition results by the specific algorithm.The error correction module calculate the error size of the integrated forecast by the algorithm,and modify the prediction results.The air quality prediction system of Zhejiang province is established based on Multi-mode Integration and Correction predicition Model.It is found that the model has good accuracy in regional air quality forecasting through the specific parameter evaluation and analysis of monitoring data and forecasting data.The experimental results show that the method that use algorithm to control the prediction results of multi-mode can take full advantage of each mode,and the complementary prediction results are more accurate and reliable than the prediction results of one mode or simple average integration.