A System Dynamics Simulation And Prediction On Eco-tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity

As the eco-tourism become a fashion,the vitality of the tourism industry has become more and more powerful,eco-tourism relying on the concept of sustainable development,to protect the resources and environment as a prerequisite.Now it has become the main direction of tourism development,but also a hot topic in tourism research.Eco-tourism laid emphasis on the ecological environment protection and tourism economy coordinated development,human activities and the harmonious development of nature,which made a solid foundation to the sustainable development of tourism.Therefore,it is the key to effectively manage the sustainable development of eco-tourism by scientifically and rationally quantifying the existing situation of eco-tourism environment.The maximum economic activity of tourism environment carrying capacity that can withstand the local human social activities is to determine the status of eco-tourism and achieve an important indicator of sustainable development in a period of time and a region of the environment.The research on the carrying capacity of eco-tourism environment not only can guide the scenic area to carry out eco-tourism activities in an orderly manner,but also can comprehensively grasp the current situation of carrying capacity of eco-tourism environment and forecast the future development trend in the existing management countermeasures.It is of great significance by researching the carrying capacity of eco-tourism environment in a certain area to ensure the tourism environment and the quality of the residents' life and to plan or manage the tourism industry.This paper first summarizes the research on the application of eco-tourism,tourism environment carrying capacity and system dynamics at home and abroad,and defines the related concepts of eco-tourism and tourism environment carrying capacity,and expounds the relationship between eco-tourism and ecology tourism environment Sustainable development theory,system theory and quantitative research on eco-tourism environment carrying capacity of the system dynamics model and feedback simulation analysis theory.Based on the analysis of the system structure of eco-tourism environment carrying capacity,the tourism economic subsystem,resource space subsystem and natural environment subsystem are classified into the subsystems of eco-tourism environment carrying capacity system.Then,this paper analyzes the feedback structure and subsystem feedback relationship of eco-tourism environment system,establishes the system causal feedback relation diagram,and puts forward countermeasures for the Eco-logical environment carrying capacity.Then,based on the introduction of the economic,spatial resources and environmental basic situation of Wuyuan County in the study area,choose the internal variables of establishing the carrying capacity system of eco-tourism environment,explain the meaning of the variables and introduce the source of the initial data of the variables,determine the flow rate flow system on the basis of the variables,and establish the ecological tourism environment carrying capacity system of Rate into the basic tree model,enter the simulation equation and set the control parameters.Finally,using the Vensim software to analysis the eco-tourism environment carrying capacity system and verify the validity of each control parameter to the running result of the system.This paper chooses the system dynamics method in the planning method and technology,analyzes the current problems of tourism by using the system dynamics principle and method,realizes the simulation and forecasting the development trend of tourism and determines the perfect eco-tourism countermeasure of sustainable development.The research can provide the corresponding policy formulation basis for the relevant tourism planning department,the optimal support for the tourism economy development and the ecological environment protection.Also,it can provide some reference for the future research on the sustainable development of the eco-tourism environment carrying capacity.