Research On Evaluation Of CDM Carbon Asset Based On Monte Carlo Simulation Method

In the face of global energy conservation and emission reduction,environmental protection and the development of low-carbon economy,the rise of carbon trading market has become inevitable.Under the restriction of trading mechanism,such as "the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" and the "Kyoto Protocol",the amount of carbon emissions has become a scarce resource,it has a traded commodity attribute.International carbon trading market for the carbon emissions and emission reductions has been established.Overall,at this stage mainly carbon assets in developing countries are CDM projects carbon assets,which also are called CDM carbon assets.At present,China is the largest donor of CDM carbon assets,so the value of CDM carbon assets is important for investment decisions in CDM projects and Maximize the value of the CDM projects in China.Based on existing research,first of all,this paper summarizes the type of the international carbon market and development status and trend of the domestic carbon market from the point of view of the global carbon market and domestic carbon market.It analyses the origins,concepts and features of the carbon asset and economics foundation of carbon asset assessment.On this basis,it briefly introduces the Clean Development Mechanism and clearly defines the meaning and specificity of CDM carbon assets.Then,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of CDM carbon assets valuation.It analyzes the influencing factors of CDM carbon assets valuation from "quantity" and "price" two implications.It is a comprehensive analysis of the determination process CDM carbon assets emissions,then it analyzes the influence of different factors on prices of CDM carbon asset.Finally,this paper constructs CDM carbon asset valuation model combining traditional assessment methods and has an empirical analysis.This paper analyzes the applicability of traditional evaluation methods in CDM carbon assets,and it introduces the idea of improving the income approach by the Monte Carlo simulation method.It builds CDM carbon asset valuation model by using Monte Carlo simulation CERs price.It uses Inner Mongolia Shangdu Ji Qingliang two 49.5MW Wind Farm Project as an example analysis and calculates the value of CDM carbon assets in this project.This paper constructs CDM carbon assets valuation model that combined Monte Carlo simulation method.It provides theoretical supports for CDM carbon asset valuation and management within the enterprise,also provides theoretical support for assessment practices of other types of carbon assets,and enriches the research of carbon assets valuation.CDM carbon assets is a new property,and its theoretical research of assessment is in the exploratory stage.It has not been established related standards and norms of CDM carbon assets valuation in in national or international affairs,and related research has urgent need to carry out.Limited time,energy and ability,this paper's research on CDM carbon assets valuation method is still insufficient,still need further research and improvement.