| Land surface is a complex of interaction of ecosystem,but LUCC can better reflect comprehensive characterize of surface.LUCC is the result of the interaction of biosphere and spheres.It not only has an important impact on ecology and environment,but also has important significance for human economic development.Jinghe county is localed in Ebinur Lake Basin,where contains the Ebinur Lake wetland of the National Nature Reserve and the Jinghe oasis.This region is the most typical region of Ebinur Lake Basin.It has not only the typical arid ecological environment,but also the special wetland environment and biodiversity resources in arid area.Jinghe county has a wide range of land use/cover types,and better land resources.However,the ecological system of land use/cover in Ebinur Lake Watershed in Jinghe has not yet been objectively evaluated.Therefore,it is of great significance to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of ecological risk in a simulated land lake basin in arid areas.The typical region of the Ebinur Basin-Jinghe county was chosen as study area.Landsat TM /OLI images was obtained in 1990,1998,2011 and 2015,which are selected as the data sources.We could obtain the spatial distribution of ecological risk in the 4 period by the LUCC of the4 period to construct to ecological risk model.Then we constructed CLUE-S model by picking up driving factor of influenced in LUCC.And then through the accuracy validation of CLUE-S model.Taking the LUCC of 2015 as the initial stage predicted 3 different situation of LUCC by CLUE-S model in 2023.Based on the LUCC in different scenarios in 2023 analyzed the spatial distribution of ecological risk.The conclusions are as follows:(1)in 1990-2015,the unused land and other land types in Jinghe county were larger and more stable.The area of cultivated land has been increasing.It can be seen from the statistical data that in 1990-1998,the lake area changes is stable.However,in 1998-2015 the area of Ebinur Lake has shrunk sharply.Of course,it has a very closely relationship with the development and utilization of human beings.(2)1990-2015 years,the higher ecological risk areas accounted for most of the Jinghe area and the spatial distribution was relatively stable.The area of lowest ecological risk was the smallest,which was mainly distributed in Ebinur Lake area.The area of moderate ecological risk was fluctuated greatly,which is mainly distributed in the transition zone between cultivated land and other land types.High ecological risk area about accounts for total area of Jinghe County 5.19%,4.43%,12.58%,8.08%,respectively,which was distributed in Ebinur Lake,beach land and desert area in the eastern part of the study area.In 1990-2015,Moran's I index was 0.6620,0.7265,0.7034,0.6649,respectively,and both were significantly positive correlated with P=0.05 level.(3)The accuracy of CLUE-S is verified by LUCC of 2007 to simulated LUCC of 2015,and the precision is up to 83.67%.3 different scenarios were designed to predict the LUCC of2023 by the CLUE-S model.The spatial distribution of LUCC is more obvious changes under the protection of farmland situation,followed by natural development scenarios,and finally the situation of protected water resource.At the Ebinur Lake the southeastern regions have significant deducted under natural scenarios.The area of desert was increased,which extend to north.Under the protection of cultivated,the area of farmland increased greatly.The types of grassland and unused land are still the main types of farmland conversion.The area of desert is reduced under the condition of water protection.In the area of cultivated land,farmland conversed to grassland.The increase of grassland area is helpful to the improvement of ecological environment,which will have a positive impact on the ecological security of the study area.(4)the distribution of higher ecological risk in the 3 different scenarios was the largest,especially in the case of at scenarios of protected farmland.However,lowest ecological risk area was less.Its area is largest under protection water resource.Ebinur Lake region still the main location of low ecological risk areas.Under the water protection scenario,the area of the moderate ecological risk was the largest,followed by the natural development of the situation,and finally for the protection of farmland,the area were 192164.24hm2,171333.13hm2,133752.4 hm2,respectively.Ecological risk of LUCC under water protection scenarios was better to ecological environment.Ecological risk degree of LUCC is larger under the situation of cultivated land protection.The values of Moran's I with different ecological risk in 2023 were 0.6336,0.5855,0.5900,respectively. |
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