Evaluation And Prediction Of Ecosystem Services Based On Land Cover In The Source Region Of Yellow River

In recent years,with the development of economy,the increasingly frequent human activities have greatly caused the land use/cover changes,this not only damages the function of ecosystem services in the natural environment,but a lso affect the sustainable development of human society,economy and ecological environment.The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report pointed out that the ecosystem services of nearly 60% the world is or has been undergoing degradation,maintenance of ecosystem services has been widespread concern,the ecosystem service function evaluation has an important significance for guiding the regional sustainable development,become a hot spot of current research.The quantitative evaluation methods of ecosystem service function and the value of GIS is the main evaluation of ecosystem service value and balance based on the model,both at home and abroad have applied the results successfully.Quantitative study on ecosystem services can make people class The importance of the protection of natural ecological system,realize the sustainable utilization of natural resources and sustainable development of environmental protection and economy have a more clear understanding,but also for the comprehensive management of ecological system and maintaining ecosystem function,service value and ecological compensation mechanism to provide a theoretical basis.The ecological system provides a variety of products and services for human beings,is the basis for human survival and development.Water supply and soil conservation function as important ecosystem services,not only an important basis for the formation of soil,vegetation fixing,water conservation,but also an main part of ecThis paper uses C A-Markov model and In VEST model,the source region of Yellow River as the study area,using the data of meteorological stations,soil data,elevation data,remote sensing data,the first of a series of data parameters in In VEST model,index were calculated and checked,respectively in the study area 1990,2000,2010 years of water supply,soil keep these two ecosystem services function simulation evaluation,and then analyzed in different periods,different land cover conditions,changes in different counties under the ecological ser vice function.Finally,the CA-Markov simulation of the source region of the Yellow River in 2020 was based on the land cover map of ecosystem services in the study area were simulated and predicted,and to discuss the influence of climate factors on ecosystem service function.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Land cover in the source area of the Yellow River was first undergone restoration after degradation stage from 1990-2010.During 1990-2000 years,land cover changes mainly in the low level to the ecosystem and the change is more intense;the recovery process in the 2000-2010 period in the study area land cover situation has been restored,compared with 1990-2000 years of vegetation cover type area reduced rate was greatly reduced.But the research with the CA-Markov model predicted the 2020 the Yellow River source region of the land cover condition,the results show that the land cover in the study area is better.It can be seen in the study area,the implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forest and ecological engineering activities the better effect in the source region.(2)The spatial distribution of the study area,the water supply function of 1990,2000,2010 years of distribution trend is from southeast of Ruoergai,the high value area located in the northwest of Qumalai,Hongyuan County said,the low value zone of transition Maduo County,distribution and research area in 1990,2000,2010 years of soil function show from the southwest and central region of dari,Gunther,Jigzhi,Maqing,ABA and Xinghai County to is located northwest of Qumalai,the process of decreasing Maduo County.(3)In 1990-2010 water supply source area of the Yellow River has been showing increasing trend,from the total water supply source in 1990 is 1.51×10~7t,2000 increased to 2.26×10~7t,to 2010 the total water supply is 2.7×10~7t,the increase slowed down.The northwest and north of the study area to reduce water supply in 1990-2000 during the year,to expand the scope of 2000-2010 water supply increased,mainly concentrated in the northwest of the study area,the northeast and the southeast corner of area Tongde,Zeku county.(4)The Yellow River source region of different cover types under the soil conservation capacity per unit area in forest land > shrub > grassland with high coverage > coverage grassland > low coverage grassland > construction land > cultivated land.The source region of the Yellow River wetland land cover different unit area water supply capacity type in order to shrub > construction land > high coverage grassland > coverage of grassland > bare land > forest land > low coverage grassland > arable land > wetland,soil conservation intensity and visible cover function and water supply function is closely related to degree of cover types and vegetation.(5)The function of the ecosystem in the source region of the Yellow River in 2020 to restore the state of soil conservation of ecosystem function increased,but increased slightly,showing the whole distribution of central high around low water supply system;and ecological function in the source regions slightly enhanced,water supply increased,showing a lower southeast to northwest state.(6)Climate change and human activities are also an important reason affecting the water supply system of the Yellow River source region and ecological function of soil conservation function.In recent years the spatial variation of the surface source area of the Yellow River rising temperatures,climate warming is the result of degenerate grassland,land desertification,soil and water loss is one of the important reasons,human activities you can directly lead to changes in land cover and the influence of the source area of the ecosystem service function.(7)Overall,land cover change has experienced a process from degradation to ease recovery,corresponding to the source region of the Yellow River ecosystem service function also is in a good direction,which indicates that the ecosystem service function of land cover change based on the method is feasible,therefore the protection of land cover.To strengthen the management and protection of the ecological environment of the study area,to curb the degradation of ecosystem service function is very necessary.