Study On Oil Production Prediction Model Based On GIS

Energy is the material basis of human survival and development in the world today most of the country's energy consumption mainly oil and gas,oil and gas resources of the city's blood,it drives the running of the city.Cities with more modernization are more dependent on energy because oil and gas resources play an important role in industry,agriculture,transportation,national defense and daily life.Petroleum and natural gas have a very important strategic position in the national economy,and oil production has an important influence on the long-term development of the country.It is therefore crucial to accurately predict oil production.The geological conditions of oil-producing basins will affect the oil exploration and development and the change of reserves,which will affect the growth of oil production.Changes in crude oil imports and international oil prices will affect the oil supply structure and directly affect the oil exploration and development planning.This article through the literature,comprehensive analysis of the oil production of the basin,crude oil imports,the international oil prices and the different geological conditions for oil oil basin short-term yield,the effect of oil production prediction model is set up,for the country to provide scientific basis for oil and gas resources development planning.The main work and results of this study are as follows:1.Using ArcSDE and SQL Server,the spatial database and attribute database of oil production prediction model are constructed,and the management and access of data are optimized.By using GIS spatial analysis and display technology,oil production and its influencing factors are shown according to basin scope.2.Research in the process of oil exploration and exploitation with basin,the geological conditions of the relevant factors and the correlation of oil production,using the grey model and neural network model to establish short-term forecasting model of oil production.Based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the commonly used models in oil production forecasting,the model of oil production medium and long term is established.3.Completed a model system,efficient management of oil production prediction indexes and visual display,oil production prediction model library,use many kinds of methods to forecast the oil production.This study from the geological conditions,such as the influence of the process of petroleum exploration and development as the breakthrough point,identify new proven geological reserves,petroleum geological reserves for geological indexes which influence the production of oil,both technical and economic indicators to establish the short-term forecasting model of oil production.The long-term oil production prediction model is established by combining several classic models of oil production prediction,and the oil production prediction system is realized by combining GIS technology.This research in the process of modeling while considering the indices such as geological conditions,but for the factors influencing oil production understanding is not enough comprehensive and thorough,in after will continue to do in-depth research,for the prediction of oil production in China to provide more accurate results.