Road Traffic Accident Prediction Based On The Quantitative Theory

With the development of economy and society of China,the in-depth urbanization development and the increasingly improved infrastructure of road traffic and constant growth of vehicle population, driver population road traffic has been playing an increasingly apparent role in guaranteeing and promoting economic and social development. Subsequently, road traffic safety has become the key issue relating to people's lives and property safety, influencing and restricting the quality and efficiency of economic and social development, being highly concerned and focused in national security strategy.Road traffic accident is a process of damage to people or property due to the disordered coupling of people, vehicle, road, environment and other dynamic or static factors. The historical data of road traffic accident can immediately reflect the interaction relationship among people, vehicle, road and environment when the accident occurred. Due to the features of the occurrence of road traffic accidents, including multifactor, contingency and ambiguity, the analysis research on this topic usually chooses the historical data of road traffic accident as the research objective, proposes related theories and research methods, aiming at analyzing the influential factors of road traffic accidents from multiple aspects and levels in order to reveal the potential rule and features of the correlations among the historical data of various accidents.In this paper, using the Quantitative Theory from the microscopic point of view, to detailed classify the factors of people, vehicles, roads and the environment, and combined with historical statistics to explore the role of the relationship between the factors.Firstly, through the study of existing road traffic accident prediction method, this paper analyzed its shortcomings and deficiencies. The methods of road traffic accidents forecast based on theory approach have been proposedSecondly, all kinds of affecting road traffic accidents factors which including human factors, vehicle factors, road factors and environmental factors, was analyzed. A detailed analysis of motor vehicle drivers, pedestrians and other road users; vehicle type and vehicle safety and technical conditions; geometric line of the road, road grade, and road conditions; human environment and natural environment is how to have an effect on roads accidents, was given.Thirdly, it illustrated the steps accident prediction and a brief introduction of several commonly used at home and abroad typical road accident prediction method. Which including experts survey, experts predict, statistical regression analysis, empirical models, moving averages and gray forecasting model, etc., and it pointed out the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methods and application conditions.Finally, depending on the quantitative theory, combining with the factors which affecting people, vehicles, roads and the environment of the previous analysis, taking Nanjing Airport Expressway as an example, accident prediction model was built based on the analysis of relevant statistical data and information. And gave an accuracy test and made appropriate changes to the model.