Research On Power Load Forecasting Of Baotou Regions

Electricity is an important driving force for the development of modern society. Scientific and reasonable power grid planning is the need of social development. Power grid planning can clear our power grid construction direction, can be the guidance for power grid construction, ensuring the safe and stable operation of power grid, improving the overall economic efficiency, to ensure the development of local economy.Power load forecasting is a basic work in power grid planning, is an important basis to establish the planning for electric power development, its accuracy directly affects the rationality and feasibility of power grid planning. Therefore, research on power load forecasting in power grid planning has important significance.This paper first introduces the background and significance of power load forecasting in power grid planning, and summarizes the current research situation about the medium and long-term power load forecasting. Secondly, this paper summarizes the theory of electric power load forecasting, and then makes a detailed analysis on the characteristics and requirements of power load forecasting.Then, this paper analyzes the present situation of national economy and social development, situation of Baotou power grid, laying a theory foundation for the later prediction model.Since support vector machine has a strong ability to handle nonlinear problems, can be able to dig out inherent rules of of the power load development, and can achieve greater forecasting accuracy, this paper selects the support vector machine method to make power load forecasting. On this basis, it selects the value of GDP, population, the first industry output,the second industry output, the third industry output value, per capital consumption,the annual peak power load factors as the input data, the whole society electricity consumption for the corresponding year as forecast value, the results show that the prediction method based on SVR has high prediction accuracy,can get better prediction results, therefore, this method is suitable for medium and long-term load forecasting.Finally, the prediction of the total power load has very important significance for urban grid planning. On the basis of electric power load forecasting, this paper combines the power balance analysis and substation capacity demand analysis, it proposes related suggestions to construction of main net frame planning.