The Research Of Optimal Allocation Of Distributed Generation Considering The Mid-long Term Load Forecasting

As a complementary part of large power networks to solve county grid long distance transmission, load dispersion and transformer overload problems in large power networks and help large power networks to keep pace with changes in the load, DG is an independent small generating set, which can provide customers with electricity from the vicinity or power distribution network, with a characteristic that makes energy consumption more effectively and efficiently, thus can achieve energy conservation and emission reduction effects. As a result, the optimal configuration of DG means tremendously to power distribution network.This research starts with the introduction of the characteristics and predictive methods of mid-long term load, using a county region in Hubei as an example, analyzing the local development of power load and the interrelationship of various economic and social indexes, employing a method of the combination of correlation analysis and Multiple Linear Regression, result a prediction of the local load.Secondly, with the overall consideration of the various impacts brought by the DG, a structural model of the optimal DG configuration has been made from economical, technical and environmental considerations, introducing triangular fuzzy number from fuzzy mathematical theory to improve the traditional analytic hierarchy process. According to three experts' Fuzzy evaluation information, a judgment matrix has been put forward, advocating a analytical method based on Comprehensive contrast to acquire the weight of each sub-goal, indicating this method can taking various sub-goal's benefits into consideration.At last, considering the mid-and-long term load development, corresponding normalized function have been put forward, which is based on the analysis of the rules of each sub-goal's variation. By adopting the improved particle swarm optimization, we have carried out a five-year optimal configuration project of distributed generation, analyzed the changes in each index within the projection period, and also prepared relative countermeasures.