Reliability Evaluation And Optimal Allocation Of A Class Of Power Generation System With Intermittent Energy

With the energy shortages and environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent,so the intermittent new energy such as wind and solar energy has been widely concerned.However,since this kind of intermittent energy having random and unpredictable properties,inevitably,with the increase of the power generation system including intermittent energy,a large number of power generation systems with intermittent energy also have raised a great challenge to the large power grid.Therefore,in order to take full use of this kind of energy,the reliability assessment and optimization of power generation system with intermittent energy has become a hot and difficult problem.For the reliability assessment of power generation system containing the intermittent energy,there are many problems such as only a single species of new energy assessment,high computational complexity and no full consideration of the actual operating conditions and so on,The paper propose a method to evaluate a variety of new energy sources,and consider the actual working conditions.And in view of the problems such as the difficulty of solving nonlinear equations,the complexity of the process and the computation and the local convergence and so on,so the optimal uncertainty quantification method is presented in the paper to optimize the configuration of the system.The main research work in the paper is as follows:(1)The system reliability evaluation method is proposed using a Markov chain stationary distribution probability.The output power of the solar cell and the wind turbine is modeled,and then the charging and discharging process of the energy storage device is described by the discrete Markov chain,thus the reliability assessment level of the system is obtained.Finally,the validity of the method is verified by computer simulation.(2)A method for evaluating the reliability of Markov chain based on time variable is proposed.In order to take full account of the advantages of the solar energy and the wind energy,for the random model of the output power of solar cell and the wind turbine has different random variables and in the establishment of the output power model of the solar cell and the wind turbine generator based on the time variable,then a hybrid power system can be obtained.(3)An optimal allocation method for a hybrid power generation system based on the optimal uncertain quantization is proposed.Based on the establishment of the output power model of the wind turbine,the solar cell and the battery charge and discharge process and the random information of the output power of the wind turbine,the solar cell and the charge and discharge power of the storage battery is quantified,so the optimal combination of the wind turbine,the solar cell and the battery is designed by using linear programming method,and then the objective function is solved.