The Research On Correlation Of Monsoon And Its Influence On Wind Power Prediction

Monsoon is a major wind system that prevails in a planetary scale and reverses its direction seasonally. The classic monsoon is a peculiar phenomenon in some regions such as Asia and Africa. Europe and America do not have typical monsoon phenomena. About two-thirds of Chinese mainland, especially the main energy consumption areas, is located in the monsoon region. The monsoon together with China relief makes a large scale synchronized fluctuations of meteorological factors across China monsoon region, such as precipitation, air temperature and air density. These meteorological factors in Chinese main energy consumption areas cause the similar characteristics of electric power demand. The monsoon also causes a large scale synchronization of wind power generation in monsoon region. Therefore, the Strong Smart Grid construction needs to take the influence of monsoon into account.In order to analyze the characteristics of the Monsoon, we apply the Square Root Transform that is a effective way to optimize the result obtained from the wavelet threshold denoising. On the other hand, we analyze the correlation between different wind speed series which come from different heights or different places using various methods such as correlation coefficient, confidence interval, Cross wavelet and Wavelet Coherence. All these efforts are beneficial for the research on the wind speed characteristics description and wind speed prediction.The main content of this paper is arranged as follows:(1) We proposed a low order nonlinear transform—the Square Root Transform to optimize the result obtained from the wavelet threshold denoising which was not perfect enough. After this method, we got a better result which was beneficial for research followed. The research belongs to upper limit of prediction accuracy and prediction of "mechanism + identification" prediction strategy research.(2) We analyzed the correlation between different wind speed series which came from different heights or different places using various methods such as correlation coefficient, confidence interval, Cross wavelet and Wavelet Coherence. We also introduced the concept of wind shear exponent that played an important role in the prediction of wind speed in higher place.(3) We analyzed the relationship between monsoon and electric power demand. We hope that we can solve the problem of the heavy power load during the peak season and accelerate the construction of Smart Grid.