| With the gradual increase of the scale of the pump station, the safety of the water outlet pipe of the pump station has been paid more and more attention. The pressure pipe is the water outlet pipe near the pumping station. Once the pressure pipeline accident, will lead to the normal operation of the pump station, or even a serious threat to the safety of the staff of the pumping station. Therefore, it is imperative to study the risk of water outlet pipeline of pumping station.This paper combine the water pipeline project of Xinjiang pumping station, analysis and discussion the source of water pipeline pumping sources of risk and the impact of pressure pipeline risk; introduces several calculation methods of risk; at the same time using the characteristic line equation, combined with MATLAB software programs, compared to the installation of box type two-way Surge Tower and no pressure water pipe outlet to measure the changes of the water hammer pressure head and the envelope of pipeline pressure head, explained that installed in the works of box type two-way adjustable pressure tower has a good effect on reducing the water hammer peak and the fluctuation range, and the risk in section 15 is reduced by 13 times, proved that to reduce the risk, the box type two-way Surge Tower in this project in is an effective measure.Binding in a water pumping station pipeline project, considering the internal water pressure, water hammer pressure, steel strength, coefficient of the welding seam, rock bearing rate uncertainty, establish the steel tube section function; Using ABQUS software, considering the equivalent load of prestressed steel wire to the concrete, the PCCP pipe section was obtained by circumferential stress, and the strength function of PCCP pipe was established by the strength stress model. The probability distribution, mean value and standard deviation of each variable are determined, and the effect of each uncertainty factor on the value of risk is simulated by Monte Carlo method based on MATLAB programming. Comparison uncertainty influence factors of value at risk, the risk calculation of pipeline water hammer water hammer pressure, internal water pressure must be as uncertain variables, the material parameters of the pipe and soil pressure can be considered as a deterministic variable.Considering the water hammer pressure, internal water pressure, soil pressure as the main load of each section of the risk value and get the risk value of maximum cross section for steel pipe and the PCCP interface that is section 15, at the risk of 0.0171. And compared the considering uncertainty of water hammer pressure and the tensile strength of concrete and does not take into account the uncertainty of the value at risk, obtained that do not consider the uncertainty of water hammer pressure and the tensile strength of concrete risk calculation value is low, it may cause conservative design and easy to cause the accident. |