The Situation Analysis Of Water Resources In Tao'er River Basin Based On SWAT Model

Climate change and land use/cover change impact on hydrology and water resources. And they are the two largest research subjects in the field of water resources evolution. Water resources has a tremendous change around the world. Extreme weather occurs frequently, and the floods and drought is very serious. Climate change and land use/cover change are the two major driving factors of hydrology. Analysis of the influences that climate changes and land use changes have on hydrology and water resources is of great significance for the evolution of water resources and sustainable.For Tao'er River Basin, water resources change have a direct impact on the land pattern adjustment, wetland protection, connection project between rivers and reservoirs, local social and economic development, etc. Therefore, this paper take hydrological model SWAT as a research tool to forecast the development trend of water resources in Tao'er River basin for the next 30 years and 80 years.And this paper also analyze the change of the land use/cover in the recent 20 years, and the contribution coefficient to runoff depth of farmland, woodland and grassland. These studies can provide some references to the rational allocation of water resources and the adjustment of land structure in the area.The research results of this paper are as follows:(1) Through the SWAT model construction, simulation, and the simulation results analysis, it is verified that SWAT Model has a good simulation accuracy in Taoer River Basin. And it can be used to simulate the runoff in the region.(2) This research predict runoff in Tao'er river basin within the next 30 years based on the assumption of future climate scenarios, and the next 100 years based on prediction meteorological data providing by Hadgem2_ AO model. Results show that the Taoer River runoff change in the future showed a slow increasing trend.(3) This research studied the land use change about recent 20 years in Tao'er River, And the three main land use change is how to influence the runoff depth.The results showed that: in the Tao'er River Basin. Cultivated land is inhibition for the runoff formation. The woodland is contribute to the runoff formation. On the grass, in the upstream mountain area, grassland is contribute to runoff formation. But for the middle and lower reaches plain area, grassland played an inhibition role. In the past 20 years, the change of land use type also caused the increase of agricultural water demand. And this exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources.