Design And Implementation Of Power Load Characteristic Analysis And Short-term Load Forecasting System

With the rapid development of power grid construction, the contradiction between power supply and demand increasing, as well as the implementation of national electricity policy and related economic policy, it can be seen that power system load characteristics changed significantly, that the security and stability operation of power grid faced a large threat and that the difficulty of load forecasting increased correspondingly. Therefore, the development of power load characteristics analysis and short-term load forecasting system is important.In order to analyse power load characteristics along with the time variation for mining the law of its development, specific load characteristic curves and related parameters indicators are often used to describe and measure it. This paper introduces the common load characteristics indicators, analyses the main factors affecting the load characteristics qualitatively and studies the relevance between the load and the influencing factors. Then combing with power load actual data of the province, it analyses the load characteristics of each period and the various industries by using curve method, index method and comparison method.Since the future development of the power load will be affected by a variety of complex factors, besides, different prediction methods, theories, predict assumptions and prediction schemes of applicable conditions can lead to different predictions, the paper did these works:firstly, it analysed the advantages and disadvantages and application conditions of different short-term load forecasting methods; secondly, it looked for load forecasting methods which can process data adaptively considering different applicability of different short term; thirdly, it compared, analysed and synthesized all forecasting results; lastly, it established a prediction model base to achieve intelligent model base. In addition, considering that the special load directly affects the load characteristics of daily load, the paper deeply studied the correlation analysis for special load to daily load, creatively put forward the influencing factors determined as the intermediate variables between special loads and daily load, presented a correlation analysis method based on gray correlation analysis and fuzzy reasoning.This paper discusses the system design based on the theory achievement of power system load haracteristics analysis and short term load prediction methods, then completes the relatively complete power system load characteristics analysis and short term load forecasting system. This system not only carries on the curve and the index analysis to the load characteristic, but also carries on the short term load forecast based on the establishment of a rich and perfect short-term load forecasting model base with strong adaptability.