The Research And Explore On The Prediction Of Urban Power System In The Short-term Construction

With the accelerated process of urbanization and economic growth in China,the efficiency of the modern power system is constantly improving.Along with the complexity and uncertainty of innovation began to increase,the innovation of the city power system improvement also appeared in considerable difficulties.Short term load forecasting of power system has a large proportion in the power system reform and the grid operation in power system is the basis for the design.It is not only the primary condition to satisfy the most basic requirements of power system,but also an important basis and premise to reform power system,improve the power grid voltage level and build a strong power grid.With the development of national economy and the progress of science and technology,power in all walks of life in a large proportion of the future development also plays a decisive role.The accuracy of power load forecasting plays a great role in industrial production.How to accurate short-term load forecasting accuracy has become a key decision factors for the power system innovation and the future more intelligent power grid construction.The accuracy of load forecasting can be influenced by many different levels of interference.The using environment of the models is restricted by the different situation.It is difficult to have any situation could solve most of the problems.As a consequence,it is difficult to unify to a large extent,for there are different models and different calculation accuracy for different situations.Therefore,it is necessary to use the appropriate time to predict the location of real-time situation,establish different forecasting models,analyze the different interference factors,and compare with the calculation method which is the most close to the actual situation with a higher accuracy.Thus we can obtain the closest forecast result.In this paper,a variety of short-term load forecasting theories and the effect of the actual projects are analyzed in the context with the increasing load as a background.Also we briefly discuss the global developing history and the important position of the power network short-term load forecasting in the further daily work and study and describe the basic principles of different prediction models.After that,combined with different examples of short term power load forecasting,this paper focuses on the application of different forecasting models to the practical engineering project of power network.By using MATLAB simulation software to simulate different models and predicting the multiple binding modes of the model reduced the error and made the prediction accuracy much better than the prior method.