Research On Passenger Flow Forecasting Method And Application In Different Level Of Time Based On IC Smart Card Data

In the context of the new century information age, IC smart card is widely used in major cities’ public transportation system, to generate more and more data. It is not only convenient for the majority of bus passengers, but also provides a new passenger survey method. Thus, it is important to find out the characteristic of passenger flow from the IC smart card data, especially the information of passenger flow forecasting result needed by the public transportation planning makers and operation managers. This paper is based on passenger report data between 2008 and 2015 and IC smart card data between 2015-03-16 and 2015-03-22 from Changzhou City, provided by Changzhou Transit Group. After introduction of definition of passenger flow, this paper ensures the correct concept of flow which is good for IC smart card data analysis is boarding passenger flow. Then, combined IC smart card data with GPS data, the paper introduces the procedure to find the passenger’s boarding station and promotes a method to imply the passenger’s alighting station base on the statistical probability. Regularity characteristics research of passenger flow is done in different time levels and different dimensions, including bus system aspect, bus route aspect and bus station aspect. After summarizing on the time regularity of passenger flow, time series analysis method and Eviews are used for passenger flow forecasting also in different time levels. The forecasting results of SARIMA Model of ARIMA Model are satisfied. Finally, after a short analysis of demand on public transportation planning and operation management, this paper designs the procedure of getting bus travel O-Ds, the procedure of optimizing bus route network based on the existing one, the procedure of forecasting passenger flow, the procedure of allocating buses, the procedure of calculating on buses’headway, and the procedure of managing buses’, schedule The route 7th in Changzhou City is analyzed as a case study at the end of this paper.