On Intelligent Life Prediction Method Based On BIT For Airborn Electronic System

According to the current status that the Civil Aviation Industry is lack of effective method for airborne electronic system life prediction, on study of airborne BIT, this paper predicts airborne electronic system life. The available BIT data for life prediction is obtained by researching A320 airborne system BIT, get the airborne electronic equipment MTBF and the time between failures by the data processing. Then the life model of airborne electronic system is established with MTBF as the basic life index, life distribution of the airborne electronic equipment is obtained with the time between failures as the life index. Finally, use GM(1,1) model for airborne electronic system life prediction. The major works are given as follows:1. Describe the function, type, data content, data structure, the corresponding maintenance operation and display of the A320 airborne system BIT, and thus obtain the available BIT data for life prediction.2. Establish a life model with MTBF as the basic life index. The model includes block diagram model and mathemmatical model. Through the research of the internal hardware components and the functions division of a flight management computer, establish a life model for the computer. The model refers to reliability prediction model.3. According to the available BIT data for life prediction, analysis some real service data of airborne electronic equipment, use airborne electronic equipment life prediction method which based on normal distribution fitting, with the time between failures as the basic life index, study the life distribution of series components with the same part number, and obtain the confidence interval of the overall mean and variance in the 0.9 confidence level.4. Use GM(1,1) model for airborne electronic system life prediction, the system is consist of the airborne electronic equipment with a known life distribution.