Forecasting For Aero-engine Failure Risk And Maintenance Cost Optimization Research Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

In view of the fact that aero-engines have complicated structure and multiple failure modes, traditional methods are difficult to meet the requirements. A forecasting method for Aero-engine failure risk based on Monte Carlo simulation is was presented in the paper,which is used to evaluate the possibility of failure for each component of engine in the future.According to the characteristics of aero-engine failure data, the failure probability model is based on the Weibull distribution whose parameters are estimated by the method of rank regression. Combining multiplicative congruent generator with the inverse transform method,the random numbers are produced to satisfy Weibull distribution. The method used to forecast failure risk for engines with multi-failure modes is based on the one with single failure mode.The paper presents the simulation procedures and algorithm, by comparing the simulation results with the forecasting datum from the engine manufacture, it proves that the algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation are effective in aero-engine failure risk forecast.Based on the forecasting method for aero-engine failure risk, engine maintenance model is established considering corrective maintenance, preventive maintenance and opportunistic maintenance. With the different maintenance strategies, the maintenance process of engine is simulated randomly by using Monte Carlo method. The optimal maintenance strategy is determined by observing change tendency of maintenance costs with maintenance variables.And the optimized simulation model and method are provided for the research of maintenance costs optimization.