Modeling The Charging Load Of Electric Vehicle Based On Multi-Factors And Its Impact On Power Grid

The development of EVs(Electric vehicles) can reduce the emissions of harmful gases. However, large number of EVs access into power grid will bring a great impact on the power grid. Nowadays, EVs. The error of EVs charging load prediction has great influence on the precision of power grid load prediction. This paper will work on the impact factors of EVs load, EVs load prediction model and the load impact of EVs accessed into power grid.A EVs charging energy model considered multiple influence factors has been proposed. Based on the aspect of working environment and vehicle performance, some impact factors have been proposed, and classified by charging energy, charging power and charging time. By using SB factor sgreening method with the classification of influence factors, the main effect value of every influence factors have been calculated, and the identification model of EVs main charging energy influence factors has been proposed. Base on the result, with uncertainty analysis, the identification model of EVs key charging energy influence factors has been proposed. The main charging energy influence factors haves been divided into key factors and normal factors. The functional forecasting model has been proposed to describe key factors, and the constant forecasting model has been proposed to describe normal factors. The EVs charging energy model has been proposed based on those two models. This model fix the problem which traditional models do not consider most of the influence factors and the key influence factors are not clear. This model has a high prediction accuracy with high computation efficiency.A EVs charging load prediction model has been proposed. Based on improved bass model, EVs inventory prediction model has been proposed. This model can doing prediction of EVs based on a little EVs history data. A large number of EVs charging energy prediction model has been proposed based on EVs load model, EVs inventory prediction model and US NHTS2009 car tour data.Based on EVs load model, analyzing of EVs impact when access into power grid has been down. Based on IEEE 14 bus system, the analysis have done to find the impact of distribution system’s load curve, line power loss and note voltage when EVs access into the system. The result show that as inventory of EVs go up, the load rate and the line loss goes up and the notes voltage become worse. Based on Guangzhou system, the impact on load rate and valley-to-peak value have been analyzed. The result shows that the impact of EVs load is obvious around 8 pm.