Reservoir Flood Season Staging Operation Research Base On Climate Change

Currently,climate change is profoundly affecting the hydrological cycle and the allocation problem of river basin,so it affects the reservoir flood season staging operation research.This thesis takes "Reservoir flood season staging operation research on climate change" as title to carry out research,it’s main content and the related results are as follows:Firstly,the thesis uses the Mann-Kendall,Jumping analysis method and Sliding T test for the trend and mutation analysis of temperature,evaporation,rainfall and runoff to determine the mutation year.Secondly,this thesis chooses torrential rain days,ten-day average rainfall,ten-day average years runoff for years and annual maximum flood peak occurrences as flood index,then uses set pair analysis method for the reservoir flood season staging of before and after the mutation year.Finally,the thesis uses across-the-transition-period and staging maximum sampling to derive the reservoir stage design flood of before and after mutation year.Combining with flood regulating calculation and under the precondition of without reducing the reservoir flood control standard for flood regulating calculation,ultimately determine the limited water level of reservoir.The example analysis results show that:① the climate mutation year of Chengbihe reservoir is 1990;② Before mutation year,the pre-flood season,the pre-transition flood season,the main flood season,the latter transition flood season and the latter flood season are 4.1～4.30,5.1～6.10,6.10～8.31,9.1～9.20 and 9.1～10.31,the corresponding result of after mutation years are 4.1～5.10,5.11～5.20,5.20～8.31,9.1～9.20 and 9.21～10.31;③the limited water level of the pre-flood season is 185～187m and the limited water level of the latter flood season 185～188m,the corresponding result of after mutation year is 185～187.97m and 185-187m.It is clear that climate change has a certain influence on reservoir flood season staging operation.Based on the benefit water and flood control safety,giving the suggestion to the instance reservoir of its flood control scheduling—the limited water level of the pre-flood season to the latter transition flood season is 185m,the limited water level of the latter flood season is 185～187m.