Research On Setting A Precautionary Area In Eastern And Southeastern Waters Of Shi Dao Based On Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making With Clustering Analysis

Merchant ships and fishing boats converge in Shi Dao waters and the navigation environment in Shi Dao waters is very complicated.The density of fishing vessels is very large.There are 16 fishing operation areas and the largest fishery in north China,Shi Dao Fishing Fishery,within Shi Dao waters.Also,several main traffic flow cross in Shi Dao waters,and thousands of fishing vessels are engaged in fishing each year in these waters,as a result,ship collision accident frequently happens in these waters.The thesis research on setting precautionary area in Shi Dao waters,which mainly aims to demonstrate the necessity of setting a precautionary area in this water and to ensure it is the best solution,also to provide some theoretical basis for maritime authorities.In order to reduce the frequency of water traffic accidents,and to ensure the safety of passing ships,it is necessary to adopt the best solution of ship routeing system.The thesis learned the hydrology,meteorology and navigation conditions of the waters by doing research of Shi Dao waters,accessing to relevant historical data and surveys.Based on the ship traffic flow data of Shi Dao waters in 2014 provided by the Automatic Identification System(AIS)and the IMO's(International Maritime Organization)General Rules for Ship Routeing System,the thesis analyzed the causes of vessel accidents.Then the thesis,combing with the characteristics of dense fishing vessels in Shi Dao area,recommended to set a ship precautionary area,which is relatively special for it does not combined with other ship routeing system,and there are only 7 similar ship precautionary area adopted by IMO.Finally,to carry through the comprehensive evaluation of the extent of the need and the rationality of the establishment of an isolated ship security zone,the thesis,integrating the relevant design specification of IMO and Shi Dao's navigation features,expounded the general rules of traffic flow,fishing vessels and fishermen,ship accidents and warning areas,and established the index system of the necessity and rationality of setting up a isolated ship precautionary zone in Shi Dao sea area.During the calculation of index weights,the evaluation results may have some error due to the differences of experts' experience and knowledge level.However,this thesis employed the clustering expert group decision method to calculate the weight of indexes,which can effectively reduce the error in this aspect.Also,this thesis used the method by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis,which made the evaluation criteria more objective and accurate.