Research On Dynamic Distribution Of Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow Under Uncertainty

In recent years,with the development of urbanization in our country,the problem of urban traffic congestion,environmental pollution and noise pollution is becoming more and more serious.The urban rail transit is one of the best choices to solve the urban traffic problem because of its large traffic volume,no pollution and high speed.With the basic construction of city rail traffic continued investment in rail transit network operation has become an inevitable trend,the expansion of the scale of city rail transit network traffic surge,organization operating system complex caused by incidental effects and properties has become a major challenge to the manage department.At present,the city rail traffic system in our country has opened operations,uncertain emergencies,how to understand and grasp the network operation under the condition of uncertain events occurred when the passenger flow distribution,unit management of city rail transit operators to provide the theory and data support,and improve the operation organization of city rail traffic management scientific and reasonable,has become a hot issue of concern of researchers.Based on the analysis of research status quo of rail transit network assignment problem on the city,and put forward the uncertain network conditions(assuming network uncertainties include: site limiting,site failure and interval blocking)corresponding to the dynamic traffic assignment model is established and the algorithm,the thesis mainly includes the following:(1)under the condition of uncertainty,the urban rail transit network is analyzed,and the urban rail transit network is constructed based on the complex network theory;(2)a path selection algorithm based on ant colony algorithm is presented.Different from those based on passenger route behavior on the basis of the choice of passenger rail transit,considering the main factors into the rail transit network,the influence factors of passenger route choice as an inherent attribute of the network,on the basis of using ant colony algorithm to choose optimal path under the condition of uncertainty,and simulation of the algorithm in the computer software in MATLAB environment;(3)in the path selection algorithm based on the construction of city rail traffic assignment model based on the hierarchical structure,the path selection of ant colony algorithm as the first layer assignment model based on the residents travel time,destination site,preference and important considerations of the data source as the second layer through questionnaire survey and management of city rail system transportation related historical data analysis,finally obtained the effective path of two layer structure of the passenger flow distribution,through the example of the assignment model was verified,the results of the analysis of each index assignment.