Research On Risk Assessment System Of Relay Protection Based On Markov Model

With the rapid development of China's social economy and industry,the power system in all aspects of support under the high efficiency,new technology,large capacity,high voltage,long distance,intelligent and other characteristics,power system power scale in the high-speed upgrade,But at the same time the complexity of the degree of automation of power system to its safe and reliable power supply process has brought many unstable factors and risks,relay protection is the most important part of the entire power supply system,whether normal and stable Work,is to ensure the reliability of the main basis for reliability.In view of the shortcomings of traditional risk assessment and reliability analysis,this paper puts forward the reliability evaluation system based on 10-state Markov model to evaluate the reliability and risk.This paper uses the methods of theoretical analysis,system simulation and feedback verification to carry out in-depth study on the design,installation,commissioning,operation and management of relay protection,and obtains the basic data of the first hand,including the original data,The time-varying failure rate of the relay protection device based on the three-parameter Weibull distribution is calculated by using the large data calculation method based on the time series LS-SVM,and the failure rate function of each device is calculated.Finally,the failure rate function of each device is calculated.Finally,The results of the research on Huainan City,the existing relay protection system for risk assessment,and the results of inspection and correction.In this paper,the failure rate function is analyzed,and the calculation method of the failure rate function is given.In view of the three aspects of relay protection failure rate calculation,risk assessment and relay protection reliability,the system risk is evaluated and improved Reliability of the method.According to the experimental results of the potential risks exist in a timely manner and to minimize the loss,so that the management level of the grid can be improved to achieve safe and stable operation of the power grid.