Seismic Hazard Curve Based On Stochastic Ground Motion Modeling

The post-earthquake traffic capacity of highway network has great significance for rescue and rebuild,For the fragility analysis of bridge structures which is a critical ingredient for traffic network reliability,the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA)could be used to determine the Seismic risk curve and ground motion parameters.The method combine PSHA with source-path-site ground motion simulation to calculate seismic risk curve and ground motion parameters has great significance in engineering and multi-disciplinary research for network risk model establishing and regional traffic network connectivity reliability analyzing.Finite fault stochastic method was performed and the ground motion prediction equations(GMPEs)was developed for a high intensity traffic network area in Sichuan.PSHA were used to give the seismic hazard curves for bridge sites of network and the seismic hazard assessment of bridge nodes.Firstly,this article presents the methodology and procedure of PSHA based on ground motion stochastic synthesis and the meaning of model parameters;For parameters with significant variability,we consider the effects of aleatory uncertainty,treating each key parameter as a probability distribution for simulation.Model parameters and their probability distribution characteristic were determined by regional geological and seismicity data,ground motions with 8 directions for 192 sites were simulated for a high intensity traffic network area in Sichuan.Based on these results above,Robust regression was used to obtain the GMPEs in the PGA and different periods of PSA.We compared these GMPEs with the traditional empirical relations of Sichuan and surrounding area.The seismic hazard curves for 40 bridge sites of highway network were calculated using PSHA by the GMPEs,this article also compared these results with seismic hazard curves used traditional empirical relations,discussed the difference of the ground motion design parameter which based on hazard curve above,included the influence on the bridge structures vulnerability and network connectivity reliability.