| The navigation conditions of the channel can be divided into the annual navigable channel and the seasonal navigation channel according to the length of the navigation time.A navigable waterway may provide a navigable waterway for the whole year.Seasonal navigation channel,that is navigable only in a certain season(as a non-freezing season)or water level(such as the middle flood period or the middle and low water period).Due to the uneven distribution of topography and water resources in Yunnan Province,due to the constraints of various factors,the development of inland river shipping is relatively backward,and the potential of inland shipping has not been fully realized.In this paper,the trend analysis and periodicity analysis of precipitation runoff in Yunnan province and six river systems are carried out.According to the distribution characteristics of water resources,the potential water source area and water receiving area are divided into three parts,using bayesian simulation model to simulate the situation of water shortage and drought in the water source area and water receiving area,and calculate the favorable and unfavorable risk probability of water exchange in this scenario,to provide the basis and reference for the establishment of river water management.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:The Mann-Kendall rank correlation test and five point moving average method were used to analyze the characteristics of precipitation and runoff in Yunnan province and the six major river systems.The results show that the annual precipitation and runoff in Yunnan province have a decreasing trend,but the trend is not significant.The annual precipitation of the six river basins has a downward trend,and the annual precipitation in the Red River Basin and the Pearl River Basin is obviously reduced,the Lancang River Basin,Nu River basin,Irrawaddy basin,Yangtze River Basin annual precipitation decreasing trend was not significant.However,the annual runoff of the six basins showed a downward trend,and the trend was not significant.Using wavelet analysis method for yunnan province periodic analysis of the precipitation and runoff of the province and six major river basin precipitation and runoff of main cycle and cycle time.Precipitation in yunnan province,there are 23 years and 30 years cycle process of large scale,the main period of 30 years;There is a 23 years cycle process of runoff.For six river,the honghe river,the lancang river basin precipitation there are 23 years and 30 years of large-scale cycle,the main period of 30 years;Nujiang river basin,the Irrawaddy river basin precipitation there are 29 years large-scale cycle;The Yangtze river,pearl river basin precipitation has 23 years and 30 years of large-scale cycle;The main period for 23 years.Honghe.Using statistical method to catchment areas and tapping potential and synchronous asynchronous probability are analyzed,and northwest yunnan,western yunnan,southern yunnan as the three main forest in yunnan region,northwest yunnan and the main forest in yunnan the largest asynchronous frequency between tapping and the western yunnan and the main forest favorable frequency between tapping in water transfer to central yunnan province is the largest.And encounter between tapping analysis can be found in yunnan are far apart and between two tapping asynchronous frequency is bigger,be helpful for water diversion;Between adjacent two tapping and asynchronous frequency is small,is not conducive to the diversion.Bayesian simulation model is established,based on historical data and assume different situation are analyzed under the condition of water diversion risk,this paper expounds the three source area with complex inner link between three tapping,intuitive quantitatively reflect catchment areas and solve the encounter probability variation between and draw the different catchment areas and the probability of more or less the same wet year,normal year,tapping,and water transfer in favor of the frequency of water diversion and adverse. |
