Bank Slope Evolution Trend Research Based On The Monitoring Data Of The Right Bank Slope In Front Of One Hydropower Station’s Dam On Yellow River Upstream

The researching slope is located in the upstream of the Yellow River on the right bank of a hydropower station dam before.And its both sides is the vertical slope,the occurrence condition is complex.The early formation of strewn at random change form due to human engineering activities Date to July 2014 the largest cumulative displacement at the top of the platform has reached 41 m,once the instability would bring great harm.Therefore,the study of the development trend of bank slope deformation has a strong engineering practice and theoretical significance.In view of the problem,this paper combined with a large number of monitoring data,the characteristics of the slope deformation evolution are analyzed.And the using of deformation stages of comprehensive prediction method,the displacement of the multi-factor time series prediction method and the trend of the R/S analysis,the development trend of bank slope and deformation evolution are researched.The main results are as follows:(1)On the basis of existing research results,through field investigation,the paper according to the macroscopic deformation phenomena can be divided into I area,II area and III area.(2)The surface monitoring analysis showed that Ⅱ area is mainly deformation area,that downstream Ⅰ area and upstream Ⅲ area for its drawing deformation.And deformation in the platform fore slope and turning point is the largest,go to the lower part of slope and to the inside platform,the deformation have tended to decrease.But in the slope terrain protruding parts,deformation is serious.Deep monitoring analysis show that the deformation in deep is small,and focused on more than 2700 m elevation,and slope deformation by the table to the inner slope.(3)The combination of table and deep analysis of the deformation monitoring,deep and shallow deformation exists in the trend of consistency,but space and deformation performance on a business trip on the opposite sex,the table deformation bigger than deep deformation,so the bank slope deformation in deep without a sliding surface,far away accelerating deformation stages.And deformation induced by rainfall,water and other external factors,shows three stages:the stage of creep,slow deformation stage and accelerated deformation stage.(4)Combining monitoring,three types of information closely related to the development of deformation monitoring are dug including the signs outside induced factor,macro information criterion and the displacement monitoring information types.Three types of deformation phase criterion rules are established using these three kinds of information.Comprehensive three criteria the comprehensive information of the bank slope phase discrimination forecast model is established(5)The paper uses time series analysis method and takes the outside world in front of the induced factor as a variable.Taking the QC7 as an example,the model achieved good results and verifies the feasibility of the model.(6)Using R/S analysis of displacement monitoring curve line analysis,The results show that:when external inducing factors do not change,the deformation will reduce and tend to stable creep,in addition to fore-slope local looseness damage.When external inducing factors rapidly change,especially the water level change quickly,the deformation will rapidly increase to a new displacement step.So under the action of outside factors the deformation of the whole bank will experience multiple cycle that initial deformation-step deformation-stable creep-step deformation,until in accelerating deformation-on stages.