Power System Risk Analysis Based On Probabilistic Power Flow

In the actual operation of the power system,there are many uncertain factors,and with the time span over effects of these uncertain factors on the security and stability of power system operation and planning work is more significant.With the large-scale new energy grid and HVDC grid scale rapid growth,facing the problem of power system operation risk,determine the trend of traditional typical operation mode calculation method is based on the increasingly stretched.Therefore,in this paper,the probability distribution model and the estimation method of the probability distribution model in the probabilistic power flow model of the power system operation risk analysis are studied.First of all,based on extensive literature review,analyzes the research progress and trend of the existing power system operation risk,probability and other aspects of the trend;secondly,introduced the basic theory of Monte Carlo,and other aspects of the probabilistic power flow;then,according to the load fluctuation of the traditional probability trend of normal distribution model and independent hypothesis.Combined with the actual operation data,proposes a probabilistic load model considering correlation method based on kernel density estimation;on this basis,combined with the risk of power grid operation in China,was established based on the probability of trend of power grid operation risk evaluation index system;finally,a case is analyzed by the IEEE39 data bus system the data and results indicate that the effectiveness of this model and method.