Day-Ahead Generation Schedule For Energy Base Considering Uncertainty Of Wind Power

With the rapid growth and wind power installed capacity in the form of energy base grid matching is the rapid development of UHV AC/DC,clean energy large capacity will be out a grid normal operation,because the wind has a strong randomness,and wind power controllable than traditional energy is relatively less,so generally adopted in the planning and design of thermal power calm wind randomness of baling way out.Currently running,supporting most of thermal power and dc run only standby mode to support wind power given by rough to return system,using the volatility of wind power of thermal power to get a smooth initial design has not yet been fully realized.Considering the UHV DC sending energy base of wind power,thermal power and dc operation optimization scheduling,the key is to solve two major problems: one is rational utilization of wind power prediction information;2 it is to build optimization scheduling model,coordination of wind power output,cost of thermal power generating units and the relationship between the dc operating costs.Commonly used deterministic unit combination model containing spare constraints,is already given load curve is used to represent the future scheduling cycle load fluctuations.And specific to the UHV DC sending energy base,the traditional limited to operating conditions of the dc load curve,therefore how to reasonable use of wind power in a combined forecast information,considering the influence of the wind power uncertainty,limited and meter and dc adjustment ability is realization of UHV DC supply problems in the practice of electricity given demand.This paper using PSO algorithm to optimize the BP neural network to deterministic prediction of wind power,on the basis of the nonparametric regression model is adopted to wind power interval prediction,the scenario analysis method considering the uncertainty of wind power output,and based on the daily variation of dimension and the change of hours dimension of 2-d scene optimization method to cut scene,securing the richness of the optimized scenario and the accuracy of the final result.Building wind power prediction information and dc adjustment cost included a plan model,to improve the system ability of wind power given.Make system running indexes,through the example to abandon the wind and dc adjustment cost of system operation cost analysis to compare the influence of economy and safety,for the energy base to provide Suggestions for the plan of dc system has to be delivered to the outside.