Research On Reliability Analysis And Route Choice Of Intermodal Transport Based On Bayesian Network

With the rapid development of economy in our country,intermodal transport has made substantial development,and many scholars have carried out extensive research from internal devices or management.The multimodal transport route selection is the core content of operation organization,which plays a key role in global coordinated,optimization of operating in intermodal transport operation organization.In the vast network of intermodal transportation,there are many factors to be considered,so the path selection problem has become quite complicated.In this paper,the operation failure,the reliability of the intermodal transport system and the route choice are considered through the following aspects for intermodal transport.(1)From the aspects of personnel,environment,equipment,the paper analyzes the railway,highway and water transport in the process of impact on safety and the cause of the fault.And the composition of the intermodal transport system and the influence factors of intermodal transport system reliability are also analyzed in details.(2)Different assignment units and influence factors of intermodal transport is analyzed in the paper,and the Bayesian network model is established for every unit through converting fault tree into a Bayesian network on the basis of analysis.Then the system reliability with inference of Bayesian network are assessed,The method is not only able to calculate the reliability indices of intermodal transport system,but also it can analyze the influence degree of different components for system reliability,and the vulnerable positions of the system can be recognized.Finally,some concrete measures are put forward to reduce the failure probability of intermodal transport system on the basis of analysis.(3)The practical operation process and purpose of the intermodal transport are analyzed from the perspective of the intermodal transport operator,In order to meet the demand of freighter,this paper regards the transport fare,transport time,route reliability as the three most important factors with different weights for intermodal transportation decision making,and different factors' influence numerical value is processed through normalization according to the sensitive degree of different in the process of practical transportation.Then,a case study,which integrated network short path is calculated by Dijkstra algorithm,is analyzed,the results show that the model is put forward in the paper is effective and feasible,which can offer well guide value for practical intermodal transport.