Based On Mmon Carlo Method Of Large Power Grid Reliability Evaluation

In recent years, electricity needs of the entire community is growing, which makes electric load is also showing rapid growth trend, the development of the characteristics of the power system has a transmission distance farther, larger capacity, high pressure,AC and DC, while achieving multi-area transmission. These characteristics also determine the power system operation To greatly improve its economy, but also to the power system safe and reliable operation of their own challenges.The development of contemporary society to improve people's awareness of environmental protection, clean energy has been recognized worldwide, and its development trend is also growing. Compared to traditional energy sources, wind power and net disadvantage is difficult to control the amount of power generation, wind power generation because there will be intermittent and volatility. Complicated network structure will move toward the direction of development, for the purposes of power system, wind power access to reliable and safe operation is a major difficulty. Therefore,in the power system economic, safe operation, reliability of the system, wind power to explore the impact on special significance. Based on Monte Carlo method, the paper analyzes the operational reliability of the power system, specific analysis work.(1), respectively, for non-sequential Monte Carlo method and sequential Monte Carlo method were analyzed and compared the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods. First, an overview of the basic principles of the two methods used, and secondly, on the use of their premises load model, and finally, when research on the reliability indicators appear when the sampling frequency and timing of changes to further explore the study compared and analyzed. Analysis of results: There are two ways very similar results, EENS indicators are slower convergence rate.(2) Establishment of reliability assessment model wind farm. Winds predictions has gathered years of history of wind speed data using Monte Carlo method and ARMA model; when the power system containing wind farm, reliability evaluation method using the Monte Carlo method, the study proved that: the same wind power capacity after the unit instead of a conventional unit, the reliability of the system is reduced.(3) in RBTS system they were non-sequential mode and sequential Monte Carlosimulation Monte Carlo method to study analysis. First, the sensitivity analysis unit reliability parameters; Second, when the power system containing wind farm, the scope of the relevant reliability assessment includes not only installed wind power capacity parameters, peak loads, also relates to the operating parameters, fan failure rate, repair time assessment parameters.(4) Combined with the power system model and the reliability model of wind farms, Based on the sequential monte carlo method, For power grid containing wind farm system reliability analysis, More deeply recognize the wind farm to the risks of the safe and stable operation of power grid.