Research On The Multi-parameter Probability Model On Accidental Damage For Applications Of Civil Aircraft Structures

During the operation of civil aircraft,different kinds of damages inevitably occur in the aircraft structures.In addition to being affected by environmental deterioration and fatigue damage,the aircraft structure is also subject to accidental damage due to various unforeseen factors.But the study of the development of MRBR in our country is still at the beginning,the determination technology of structure AD maintenance interval and the possibility levels of AD remain base on expert evaluating method.This paper is based on the actual demand of civil aviation aircraft structure damage prevention maintenance in China,research on the analysis and prediction of accidental damage of aircraft structures,the main research work of this paper is as follows.The current situation and development trend and critical technology of accidental damage are reviewed.And a detailed comparison and analysis between S4000 P in Europe and MSG-3 in USA about the maintenance program of accidental damage,the main sources of accidental damage were determined and the importance of assessing and rating the possibility of accidental damage is proven.Aiming at the prediction of accidental damage of civil aircraft structures,The accidental damage accident prediction method by GM(1,1)models and Grey-Markov chain model are introduced.The feasibility and effectiveness of the model were proved through an application case,and the key technologies for accidental damage incidents of follow-up work have laid a theoretical basis.The prediction of the accidental damage incidents,is modeling by improved Grey-Markov chain.The model is improved by the sliding transfer matrix method.The Grey-Markov model is improved by metabolism method to higher accuracy.Then based on the improved model,bird strike,lightning,foreign objects impact and collision are forecasted respectively.With comprehensive consideration between statistical analysis of historical date and the prediction results of the probability model,a scheme to evaluate the possibility of accidental damage is proposed in this paper.In conclusion,some key problems in the analysis of accidental damage of civil aircraft and the possibility rating are studied.The expert evaluating method,which is usually used by previous studies,sometimes lack of objectivity and evidentiality.A new method based onprobabilistic model is proposed in this paper,which is of great significance to improve the analysis and rating of civil aircraft accidental damage.Studying results in this paper can be a reference for the correlative research.