Development Of Fuel Consumption And CO₂ Emission Model Formotor Vehicles In Macao

As an international tourist city, withmore than thirty million person times of travelers visited in 2014, Macao is under great pressure of traffic demand. With thehighest vehicle density in the world, motor vehicles are the main source of Macao air pollutants, its government takes green transportation as the main guidelineof road transport policies, and the importance of controlling fuel consumption and carbon dioxide（CO₂） emissions of motor vehicles is obvious. Therefore, to compensatefor the missing function in Model of Macao Motor Vehicle Emission Factor, a model for estimating fuel consumption and CO 2 emission of vehicles in Macao was established in this study, providing ascientific assessment tool for related policy making.First, the database of baseline fuel consumption and CO₂ emission factor was established, in which the database of light-duty vehicle was built by collecting the type-approval fuel consumption data of major sources of importsfor Macao vehicles（light-duty passenger car: Japan and Europe; motorcycles: Taiwan）, and the baseline data of heavy-duty vehicles were obtained by analyzing the data of PEMS（Portable emission measurement system） test. In addition, with the data of PEMS test and foreign model, the relationship between fuel consumption and key influence parameterswas systematically analyzedto obtainthe quantitative response functions foreach correction factor. The real-world fuel consumption and CO₂ emission factor, based on control technology, vehicle weight and practical driving condition, werethen estimated, the corresponding GUI（graphical user interface） software was also developed. On this basis, coupled with the traffic demand model and network traffic flow model, the vehicle-fleet fuel consumptions and CO₂ emission factors for different vehicle types we re estimated, as well as the inventory of fuel consumption and CO₂ emission. The share ratios for various vehicle types, the temporal and spacial distribution of CO 2 emissionwere also presentedas a detail discussion of the inventories.Estimated fuel consumption and CO₂ emission factor of LDPV fleet in 2010 are 10.1 L/100 km and 240 g/km, respectively, which is 53% higher than the type-approval condition, mainly thanks to the use of air-conditioner and traffic congestion（resulting in a lower average speed）. In 2010, estimated fleet fuel consumption of heavy-duty bus and heavy-duty truck are 39.4 L/100 kmand 49.5 L/100 km, respectively. Total CO₂ emissions of vehicles in Macao in 2010 is 338 kt, in which the main source are light-duty passenger vehicles, accounting for 49% of share ratio; the hourly share ratio of a typical weekday in 2010 is sustained high during 8AM to 6PM, which is different from the case of other Chinese cities（such as Beijing）; 60% of vehicular CO 2 emission were generated in Macao Peninsula, the emission intensities are different significantly in different districts, showing a decreasing trend from north to south.Four scenarios were designed to evaluate the effect of CO₂ emission reduction for various aspects of policy during 2010-2020. For the perspective of timeliness, it was show that controlling vehicle ownership is better than improving the fuel economy of conventional vehicles or penetration of alternative vehicles. It indicated that a longer forecasting period is needed to reflect the reduction result for penetration of alternative vehicle; Resulting in an apparent decline in annual vehicle kilometers traveled（VKT） of private and public vehicles, the completion of Macao light rail was proven to be the most effective measure for reducing CO₂ emission.