Analysis On Spatio-temporal Operating And Research On Demand Forecasting For Urban Public Bicycle System

With continuous development of China's economy,steady improvement of people's living standards,gradual acceleration of urbanization development,some urbanization problems are increasingly prominent.As it known to all,the urban population and car ownership has increased dramatically,making the city road congestion situation more and more serious.In order to alleviate the pressure of urban roads and effectively promote the sustained and healthy development of urban traffic,urban public bicycles have played an important role in the development of urban public transport.The city public bicycle system is to solve the problem of “last mile”within urban residents' travel,with its convenient and flexible characteristics and good accessibility.Zhuzhou City's former public bicycle system has been fixed-pile model,which is characterized by each bike must be borrowed from the lock parking bar;however,with the infiltration and development of "shared bicycle","no-pile model" public bike system will be more convenient for people and attract more user groups.Therefore,reasonable public bicycle system is conducive to improve the city's public transport system as well as the efficiency of urban transport operations;meanwhile,it is conducive to the development of urban transport low-carbon concept,and somehow enhances the competitiveness of the city's public transport.In this paper,the public bicycle‘s distribution and operation proposals are discussed based on GIS analysis,nuclear density analysis,hot-spot analysis,clustering and outlier analysis and spatial migration analysis.As for the research scale,data come from each site's statistics,including borrowing amount,returning amount,total amount,and difference amount between borrowing and returning;moreover,month scale data and daily scale data can be used in space-time analysis.Density analysis between different months shows the high density area and the low density area.The high-value outliers in Zhuzhou City are mainly located in the suburbs,and the low-value outliers are mainly located around the central urban area.After analyzing the total daily borrowing amount,it shows that there are tidal phenomena,hot-spot changes are not obvious compared with kernel density changes on the scales of daily.By using spatial migration analysis,it is concluded that there both exist unidirectional and two-way flow patterns.In the demand forecast,by using the Markov chain model in the area of Tianyuan District of Zhuzhou City,the scale of the public bicycle site,the demand and scale of the public bicycle station are forecasted.There are obvious differences in the use of public bicycles,and differences in the level of prediction in the middle and higher levels of the demand are more obvious,where demand for all types of regional distribution are more concentrated along the road boundary.In Tianyuan district,demand in west side of the ring line is low,resulting as the lower and medium demand forecast area;demand in east side ofthe ring line is basically high,resulting as the high demand forecast area.Enterprises,such as CSR Corporation Limited,BAIC Motor Corporation and Hunan Taizinai Biological Technology Company are mainly distributed in the median demand area on the west side of the ringline.Tianyuan government is distributed in the higher demand area.Some part of Hunan University of Technology on the eastern side of the ring line also appeared in the median forecast area.In Tianyuan District,the high demand forecast area is mainly distributed in the northeast of the area,Yellow River intersection,city trade unions,municipal governments,where the utilization rate of public bicycles up to 90%.According to the demand forecast analysis,it can be concluded that the utilization rate of public bicycles in Tianyuan District of Zhuzhou City is mainly on the middle and higher level,up to 70%-80%.This paper analyzes the time and space regular pattern of the public bicycle and the demand forecast of the bicycle station,and puts forward the rationalization suggestions for the adjustment of the bicycle station and the dispatching of the bicycle.It includes improving the traffic network,strengthening the time and space dispatching,dynamic demand forecasting and warning aspect.In future,it will provide reference to the implementation of Zhuzhou's "shared bicycle".