Ship Trajectory Prediction Based On AIS Data

With the rapid development of economy,the shipping industry has been developing rapidly,and the number of ships has been increasing.The surge in the number of vessels at sea has brought prosperity of trade,but it is easy to cause the problem of water traffic safety: route burden,channel congestion caused by the ship's own problems and human factors in the accident,the crew and passengers of the life and property safety threat.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out effective monitoring on the ship,find out the abnormal behavior of the ship in time,and reduce the risk of water traffic accidents.On the other hand,shipping is the most important form of international trade,which plays an important role in economic development.The type of trade is closely related to the route.Through the analysis of the change of the route,we can understand the change of shipping logistics,which is beneficial to the further understanding of the future pattern and development of international trade.To predict the dynamic navigation is the basis of the analysis of ship monitoring and track changes in the work,the accurate prediction of the ship trajectory can not only detect the abnormal trajectory for marine traffic,but also from the ship's point of view to understand the development and change of international trade,shipping and transportation is one of the key technologies of intelligent service.With the application and popularization of the AIS system,the availability of ship trajectory data is improved,which provides the basic conditions for ship trajectory data mining.The main work of this thesis is as follows: in the history of a large number of ships based on the AIS data,the first data recovery and data processing work,to restore the original data on the maximum extent,clean the available data;on this basis,two kinds of trajectory clustering algorithm using trajectory segmentation and region division,get the ship route trajectory data set from the original AIS data in a discrete;Then take the route trajectory data is based on the combination of various methods of trajectory prediction modeling,and to route data in the Pearl River Delta for verification based on the prediction algorithm,the results show that the prediction algorithm based on Naive Bayesian with up to 90% accuracy in the prediction of ship trajectory.