Research On Traffic Volume Prediction Model For Highway Based On TEI@-IOWA Methodology

The expressway has the advantages of high energy,high efficiency and fast accessibility.Hence,it has acted as an important connection between different regions and also promoted the booming development of economic areas along the expressway.It has played an important role in pushing forward the development of national economy.However,the expressway also has the disadvantages of occupying a large area of land,huge investment,long cycle for construction as well as the difficulty in raising the fund.Before the construction,massive feasibility researches should be carried out to determine the rational scale of construction and maximize the economic benefits.The traffic volume is the major factor to determine the construction scale of the expressway.The prediction and analysis on the demand for traffic capacity should be made,whether it is for the new construction or the expansion of the expressway.Therefore,the changing tendency of the traffic capacity of the expressway should be predicted accurately to provide reference for making the decision on the construction of the expressway.This paper aims to research the method of predicting the traffic capacity of the expressway so as to realize the accurate prediction of the traffic capacity.The change in the traffic capacity of the expressway will be influenced by various factors.The change in one or more factors may cause the change in the traffic capacity in an uncertain manner.It has made the prediction of the traffic capacity of the expressway a complicated system.Great efforts should be made to explore the laws about the changing traffic capacity and also improve the prediction algorithms constantly.In this way,the change in the traffic capacity of the expressway can be predicted.Based on the existing method of predicting the traffic capacity of the expressway,this paper will introduce the Tei@i methodology.In view of the thought of dissembling before integration,it will divide the prediction of the prediction of the traffic capacity of the expressway into three parts,namely the linear,non-liner and time series.The corresponding method suited to the feature of each part will be chosen for predicting them one by one.The induced ordered weighted averaging(IOWA)operator will be applied to predicting each of them.The model for the combined prediction of the traffic capacity of the expressway will be also built.The model will be used to analyze the actual case.As shown by the result of practical research,the model of the combined prediction of the traffic capacity of the expressway based on the Tei@i methodology has far outperformed the prediction method for each part.To conclude,this model can be utilized to predict the changing tendency of the traffic capacity accurately.