Tarmac Safety Risk Assessment And Management

With the rapid development of China's civil aviation industry and the increasing demand of people's travel,the airport traffic is increasing.The maintenance of all flights is conducted on the tarmac,it makes a high utilization of tarmac resource,on the meantime,it brings huge pressure on the tarmac safety operation,security risks in the operation of the tarmac is increased,thus becomes particularly important for safety assessment and risk management on the tarmac.This paper is based on analysis of data and tarmac safety accident cases of recent years,combined with the application of industry operation rules and safety management techniques and methods,make a classification and identification of dangerous source in the tarmac operation of operation.According to the civil aviation ground accidents,undertake FTA method analysis accident cases from the four aspects-man,machine,environment and management-in order to identify risk factors of the tarmac,than establish safety evaluation index system of the tarmac,and use the Principal Component Analysis method to screening and optimization it,obtained the final index system which contains 4 primary indexes and 23 secondary indexes.Use the risk matrix evaluation method to classify the consequence and severity of indexes,with the application of ALARP principle,combined with the acceptable risk set by management department,proposed risk management plan from two aspects of daily operation risk and changeable risk,help management department to implement a more effective safety management.Finally,establish the prediction model of three exponential smoothing method with nonlinear regression,take corresponding dynamic management measures with the trend of the increasing number of accidents.