Passenger Flow Forecast And Investment Benefit Of Tourism Rail Transit

In recent years,with the development of China's social economy and the improvement of people's living standards,tourism industry is growing,and participants are increasing,which causes serious traffic problems.For a long time,the study of traffic congestion has always focused on urban areas.In fact,the urban traffic congestion is only a part of the problem of congestion,crowded traffic in tourist attractions has become a common phenomenon.Especially in the “golden week”,the tourist attractions crowded on the experience of tourists,scenic spots and other aspects of the image caused by the problem,which has aroused the concern of the whole society.The problem of crowded tourist attractions has become one of the most important issues of local government and scenic spots.At present,more and more rail transit projects are used to solve urban traffic congestion.The rail travel solutions are being extended to the city's famous scenic spots.For any of the infrastructure projects,the previous research on the future construction and operation has played a very important role.As a member of a large-scale infrastructure construction projects,the early theoretical research of tourism rail transits even more important.However,it is difficult to predict the passenger flow accurately.Domestic and foreign scholars have made a lot of research on passenger flow forecast.However,there are still some problems,such as the choice of the forecasting model in the forecast of the passenger flow.In view of the existing problems of passenger flow forecast,our research mainly focuses on the following work:Firstly,the relationship between the autocorrelation characteristics of passenger flow and the application effect of forecasting model is studied.This paper focuses on the relationship of passenger correlation and prediction model of the effect of the exponential smoothing method,adaptive adjustment method,seasonal adjustment method of three kinds of prediction model,and use the actual data source in the area of sale of tickets and booking system,carried out the prediction effect of contrast,passenger flow data correlation analysis of the relationship between the experimental and the data flow analysis of autocorrelation characteristic experiment results and prediction results of experimental results.Secondly,based on the above research,a correlation analysis was carried out by using historical data,selecting or constructing appropriate passenger flow forecasting method,and using the actual data.The validity of the method was verified to predict for the whole season,light passenger reception area.Lastly,the tourism traffic investment and financing was analyzed through the tourism rail transportation infrastructure projects in the process of financing cost analysis,considering the impact of the corresponding project cost of different financing channels for the project operation stage of cash flow,and established to determine the optimal cost rate model.And we applied our method on Jiuzhaigou tourism rail transit.