Research On The Discrepancy Between The Urban Traffic Performance Index And The Corresponding Drivers' Individual Experiences

In order to evaluate the performance of traffic and provide reference for traffic analysis and management,many large cities have formulated road traffic performance index.At present,in the domestic and foreign,there are a variety of composite indexes designed for the road traffic and used to quantitatively evaluate the overall performance of road traffic from the macro level.These indexes generally choose to quantify the overall performance of the road basing on the congestion mileage ratio or travel time ratio,most of which focus on the quantitative evaluation of the road network status.From the macro level,these indexes' reference value is strong,and have good evaluation effect,but from microcosmic angle,traffic index is a wide range of spatio-temporal aggregate data existing deviation from the drivers' actual perception.In order to study the deviation between traffic index and the actual traffic condition,this article puts forward a research method based on statistical analysis methods,specifically,selecting and utilizing several appropriate methods,including regression analysis,cluster analysis,time series analysis and so on,to study features and changing trend of the deviation which is possibly generated when traffic index evaluates the traffic condition.This article also puts forward the method to get data the study needed,that is,carrying out a survey on the actual congestion feeling based on the drivers' perception,specific process of which and the data processing method are given in the article.In order to verify the reasonability and practicability of the method,this article took Beijing as an example and made a survey on the deviation between the traffic condition reflected from the traffic index of Beijing and the drivers' actual perception of the traffic condition.The research made a random survey of actual perception of drivers in traffic congestion in the main districts of Beijing,and compared the released real time traffic index with the investigation data to find the deviation between real time traffic index and drivers' actual traffic congestion perception.The research combined factors that might have an impact on the effectiveness of the evaluation and made the multiple linear regression analysis,logistic regression analysis,hierarchical cluster analysis and time series analysis which were carried out in two forms:urban district zoning and ring express road zoning.The analysis shows that three factors which are whether it is a working day,the driving zone,and the driving period will significantly affect the deviation between the traffic conditions reflected by the traffic index and the actual feelings of the drivers on the road.The congestion feeling deviation of working days under urban district zoning is 17.9%.higher than nonworking days.The congestion feeling deviation of second to third ring express road zoning and Chaoyang District zoning are higher.Compared with the daytime period,the congestion feeling deviation of nighttime is lower.The congestion feeling deviation is higher during rush hour of workdays and the deviation is more and more lower from the city's central area to the outer area on workdays while on non-workdays the distribution of deviation is related to the direction of traffic flow.The deviation on workdays contains two period of rush hour in the morning and evening while on non-workdays there is not an apparent changing trend in the deviation and there is only one period of rush hour in the evening.The changing trend of the deviation is similar to the changing trend of the city's traffic.The deviation is usually high when the traffic condition is complex.