Reliability Real-time Evaluation Of JTC Based On Cloud Model

Jointless track circuits are capable of providing control commands and occupancy information for trains in section,which play a crucial role in ensuring driving safety.At present,China’s railway maintenance departments still use the main maintenance methods of planned maintenance and fault repair,such maintenance methods have obvious shortcomings in terms of the timeliness of maintenance effects and the economical efficiency of maintenance costs.To solve this problem,considering the influence of external environmental factors and the real-time status of jointless track circuit equipment on the reliability of jointless track circuit system,this paper presents a jointless track circuit reliability real-time evaluation method based on cloud model.The main research of this paper is as follows:1.Presenting the establishing method of jointless track circuit reliability model under the real-time status.Based on the equivalent four-terminal network model of jointless track circuit,the amplitude of receiver input voltage under the adjusting state and the minimum amplitude of short-circuit under the shunting state are modelled.Then,according to the status information of JTC indoor and outdoor equipment,the real-time reliability of rail transmission line,transmitter,receiver and the other components are modelled,and the MTTF expression of JTC under the real-time status is deduced.2.Proposing the representation of failure rate conditions cloud,and establishing the relationship between external environmental conditions and components failure rate.According the regular pattern of the influence of electronic equipment or components on its service life,this paper study the basic method of analysing the system reliability by cloud model.Combined with the basic theory of cloud model,this paper established the environment adapted cloud model of JTC outdoor equipment,the mapping relationship between the outdoor equipment failure rate and the ambient temperature,relative humidity.3.Proposing the constructing method of JTC reliability cloud evaluation scale.Based on the division principle of membership function in "fuzzy theory" and related railway signals standards,the reliability of JTC is divided into a total of 11 levels,which are "extremely high","rather high","very high","high","quite high","common","quite low","low","very low","rather low","extremely low".And through the simulation data shows that the division principle can accurately and efficiently reflect the change of the reliability of JTC.